3 min readApr 4, 2026 06:47 AM IST First published on: Apr 4, 2026 at 06:46 AM ISTWith the redeployment of over 2,000 marines from the Okinawa-based 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit and the USS Tripoli amphibious assault ship to West Asia, experts have raised concerns that a power vacuum in East Asia could cause serious security challenges for Taiwan. In fact, the Chinese military has resumed fighter jet manoeuvring around Taiwan after the postponement of Donald Trump’s visit to China. Yet, China’s multi-layered strategy has, so far, stopped short of resorting to force to complete the unification with Taiwan, a top priority for President Xi Jinping before the centenary of the PRC in 2049.One factor that constrains China is the fear of failure in an invasion. The wide expanse of the Taiwan Strait, along with difficult terrain and the lack of viable landing beaches, pose challenges. Second, a military failure would dent China’s image and put pressure on the Communist Party to change its leadership, diminishing Xi’s stature. Third, China sees Taiwan as an inalienable part of its territory. With most countries recognising the PRC under the “One China Policy,” and with the DPP-led government expressing willingness to address the issue through peaceful means, Xi would find it hard to justify a move that would kill thousands of Taiwanese people.AdvertisementFourth, Taiwan produces 90 per cent of the world’s most advanced semiconductors, and a military conflict would severely damage its capabilities, leading to a complete breakdown of the global supply chain that would impact China as well — it also aims to control Taiwan’s semiconductor supply chain to dominate chip-based critical sectors worldwide. Fifth, while the US’s strategic ambiguity continues to work as a major deterrent against China, there is a possible shift in Japan’s policy towards Taiwan. Recall PM Sanae Takaichi’s statement that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could mean a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan.Thus, the Chinese strategic community has been observing American strengths and weaknesses in its approach to the wars in Ukraine and Iran. Meanwhile, Beijing has continued with its intimidation, including military drills, cyber-attacks on its strategic infrastructure, and intruding into its airspace. China’s coercive policy over the years has reduced the number of Taiwan’s diplomatic allies to 12. Taiwan also lacks a presence in global forums such as the WHO. Further, China uses its strong relationship with Taiwan’s main opposition party, the KMT, to propagate its views on unification among the Taiwanese people. Chairperson Cheng Li-wun has accepted an invitation from Xi to visit China next week. This is one of China’s moves to ensure that the KMT, which supports peaceful reunification, can come to power in the 2027 election.The writer is Ministry of Foreign Affairs Visiting Fellow, National Chengchi University, Taipei and assistant professor, Department of Political Science, University of Delhi