Fed Watch: Soft Labor + Weak Data = Growing Cut OddsXAU/USD SpotFX:XAUUSDFaithdrivenTradesSan Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the U.S. job market is slowing but not dangerously weak. She’s okay with waiting another month to cut interest rates but warned the Fed “can’t wait forever.” She’s still unsure about a September rate cut, but markets took her words as a sign that a cut is likely. Daly also said tariffs aren’t causing long-term inflation problems. At the same time, U.S. data like ISM Services PMI and retail sales showed weak signs in consumer spending and services. Overall, this supports a moderately dovish outlook, meaning the Fed is slowly moving toward cutting rates, possibly in September. Labor market is cooling, but not crashing → softens their tone. Inflation is slowing, but not yet at 2% → keeps them from rushing. Fed speakers (like Daly, Williams) are open to cuts but not in a hurry, still watching data. Markets are pricing in an ~80% chance of a 25bps rate cut in September, not necessarily tomorrow. This meeting (August) is widely expected to be a hold, but the tone will matter more (i.e., will they hint at cutting in September?).