ByEd YardeniPublished 08/05/2025, 05:07 PMPMIs Divergence Raises Questions About US Economic ResilienceView all comments (0)0The stock and bond markets didn’t respond much to the national survey of non-manufacturing purchasing managers this morning, even though it was on the weak side (chart). The overall NM-PMI, which the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) compiles, edged down to 50.1, just above the expansion/contraction line at 50.0. The production component was solid at 52.6. But the employment component fell to 46.4. On the other hand, the S&P Global flash US Services PMI Business Activity Index jumped from 52.9 in June to 55.2 in July.During July, the ISM and S&P Global surveys of manufacturing were both weak, with readings of 48.0 and 49.5, respectively (chart). On the other hand, the average of the general business indexes of the regional business surveys conducted by five of the 12 Fed district banks improved last month.The weakness in manufacturing’s payroll employment has been reflected in the employment component of the M-PMI (chart).The same cannot be said for NM-PMI’s employment index, which has been weak, while payroll employment in services industries has continued to grow (chart)In any event, the correlation between the M-PMI and the growth rate of real GDP goods has not been as high recently as it was in the past (chart).On the other hand, the recent slowing in the growth rate of real GDP services has been reflected in the NM-PMI (chart).Finally, the prices-paid indexes in both the M-PMI and NM-PMI have increased significantly over the past few months as a result of rising tariffs.Original PostPMIs Divergence Raises Questions About US Economic ResilienceView all comments (0)0Latest commentsInstall Our AppScan QR code to install appRisk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.