Crude Oil: Equilibrium, Key Levels & Trade ScenariosCrude Oil FuturesNYMEX_DL:CL1!EdgeClearCL1! MCL1! Market Recap In our prior crude oil commentary, we identified a bullish flag formation with key support anchored at the Q3 micro composite Value Area Low. Following a measured pullback, prices decisively reclaimed the Q3 micro composite Value Area High, subsequently advancing toward the $70 level. However, this upward momentum proved unsustainable, with prices unable to maintain higher ground. We have since retraced to the yearly open, where the market is now consolidating. Current Market Structure Crude oil is presently exhibiting a balanced profile. Notably, the composite Volume Points of Control (VPOC) for both the yearly and quarterly profiles are overlapping — a technical signal indicative of equilibrium in positioning. Market Performance Assessment Price action in recent sessions has been heavily influenced by shifts in the global demand outlook, which in turn remain sensitive to macroeconomic expectations, geopolitical events, and OPEC+ V8 members’ gradual unwinding of voluntary production cuts. Despite the prevailing headwinds — including tariff disputes, Russian sanctions, and broader trade tensions — crude oil has demonstrated resilience, consistently trading above the $65 threshold. Forward Outlook Attention will turn to today’s EIA release at 9:30 a.m. CT, which may serve as the primary catalyst for near-term directional bias. Key Technical Levels •Q3 mCVAH: 67.28 •Neutral Zone: 66.45 – 66.30 •Yearly Open: 66.34 •Intermediate Support: 65.80 •CVPOC / mCVPOC: 65.54 •Q3 mCVAL: 64.95 •Support Zone: 65.00 – 64.80 Trading Scenarios •Scenario 1 — Yearly Open Rejection Monitor the Yearly Open (66.34) as an initial resistance level. A rejection here could prompt a tactical pullback toward the Line in the Sand (LIS), offering long entry opportunities with a target above the yearly open. •Scenario 2 — DOE-Driven Flush & Recovery Should the DOE data trigger a downside push, watch for a swing failure at recent lows. A close back above prior levels would present a potential long setup, with conviction increasing on sustained price action above 65.80.