US 100 - Explosive Rally to $25,357! Nvidia Earnings + Breakout US 100CAPITALCOM:US100officialjackofalltrades What's up traders! 👋 The Nasdaq 100 is EXPLODING right now at $25,357 after a massive rally! We've got INSANE bullish momentum from Nvidia earnings, AI sentiment shift, and tech sector recovery. But the question is: Do we continue to $26,000+, or do we get a healthy pullback to the FVG at $25,100-$25,300 before the next leg up? Let me break down what's happening on the 45-minute chart and why the next move could be MASSIVE. The Setup US 100 is trading at $25,357 after SURGING from the $24,100-$24,700 support zone. Price is testing resistance at $25,400-$25,600 (red zone) with EXPLOSIVE momentum. We've got two scenarios: breakout continuation OR healthy pullback to FVG (Fair Value Gap) at $25,100-$25,300 before resuming uptrend. The big question: Does this break above $25,600 for a run to $26,000+, or do we get a pullback to fill the FVG at $25,100-$25,300 before the next leg up? Why This Setup Matters EXPLOSIVE rally from $24,100 to $25,357 (INSANE momentum) NVIDIA EARNINGS: Beat expectations, +64% Q1 revenue forecast Nasdaq +1.41% today (tech sector leading) AI sentiment shift: Partnerships > Disruption fears Software stocks rallied (Anthropic partnerships) Testing resistance at $25,400-$25,600 (red zone) FVG (Fair Value Gap) at $25,100-$25,300 (potential retest) Ascending trendlines supporting (purple lines) South Korea Kospi +45% YTD, +2% today (AI infrastructure) Japan Nikkei +2.2% (AI capex theme) Cathie Wood: AI = productivity boom, not disruption The News Context - February 25, 2026 This is where it gets EXPLOSIVE - fundamentals are MASSIVELY bullish but overbought: Bullish catalysts (DOMINANT): NVIDIA EARNINGS (after hours): BEAT expectations Q4 revenue: $66B (68% jump, beat estimates) Q1 forecast: $72B (64% jump, above expectations) 13 consecutive quarters beating estimates AI capex torrent: Chips, data centers, energy Nvidia shares initially +4% after hours (then dipped) NASDAQ +1.41% today, S&P 500 +0.81% AI SENTIMENT SHIFT: Partnerships > Disruption Anthropic partnerships with software companies Software stocks rallied (not just disruption fears) IBM +3.58% (recovered from Monday's -13% panic) Cathie Wood: AI = productivity boom, entrepreneurial explosion ARK: AI = real GDP growth acceleration, lower inflation South Korea Kospi +45% YTD, +2% today (AI infrastructure) Japan Nikkei +2.2% (AI capex beneficiaries) Yuan strengthened (China demand for AI chips) Trump: Big Tech must build own power plants (AI infrastructure) Trump: $1,000 to non-401k Americans (flows to stocks) Ascending trendlines supporting rally Bearish/Risk factors: NVIDIA shares dipped after initial +4% (profit-taking) Nvidia CFO: "Supply-demand equilibrium" (removes wishful dynamic) Nvidia inventory grew despite commitments Chinese sales uncertain (government restrictions) Nvidia revenue growth SLOWING (68% vs prior quarters) Competition rising: Alphabet, AMD custom chips Bar to impress rising (expectations high) Options market: +/- 5% swing ($230B market cap) Salesforce -4.6% after hours (weak FY2027 guidance) Enterprise software demand under pressure AI disruption concerns persist (Citrini Research) Workday -10% (HR tasks targeted by Anthropic) US-Iran nuclear talks Thursday (geopolitical risk) FVG at $25,100-$25,300 unfilled (technical pullback likely) Overbought conditions (INSANE rally from $24,100) Key Levels I'm Watching Resistance: $25,400-$25,600 - CRITICAL RESISTANCE / Red zone / Current test $26,000 - PSYCHOLOGICAL LEVEL / Major resistance $26,500 - Extended target if breakout continues $27,000 - Major resistance zone Support: $25,357 - Current price $25,300 - FVG upper bound / Immediate support $25,100-$25,300 - FVG ZONE (Fair Value Gap / retest target) $25,000 - PSYCHOLOGICAL LEVEL / Strong support $24,700 - Ascending trendline support $24,100-$24,700 - MAJOR SUPPORT ZONE / Green zone / Demand area $24,000 - Extended support if breakdown Pattern Analysis - Explosive Rally with FVG Price is in an EXPLOSIVE rally with a Fair Value Gap (FVG) that could be retested: Rally: $24,100 → $25,357 (INSANE momentum) FVG: $25,100-$25,300 (imbalance created during rapid move) Current: Testing resistance at $25,400-$25,600 Ascending trendlines: Purple lines supporting rally Volume: Explosive buying pressure Two scenarios: Breakout continuation OR FVG retest The key is whether we break above $25,600 for continuation, or pull back to fill the FVG at $25,100-$25,300 before the next leg up. Two Scenarios - EQUALLY WEIGHTED SCENARIO 1: Breakout Continuation (50% probability) Price breaks above $25,600 resistance with volume, targets $26,000-$26,500. Break above $25,400-$25,600 resistance Reclaim $26,000 psychological level Target 1: $26,500 (extended target) Target 2: $27,000 (major resistance) Triggers: Nvidia earnings momentum continues (AI capex theme) AI sentiment shift accelerates (partnerships > disruption) Software stocks continue rally Cathie Wood narrative wins (productivity boom) South Korea/Japan AI infrastructure theme spreads Trump $1,000 payments flow to stocks US-Iran talks succeed (risk-on) No FVG retest (momentum too strong) This aligns with: Explosive rally momentum Nvidia beat expectations AI sentiment shift (partnerships) Cathie Wood productivity boom narrative Global AI infrastructure theme Ascending trendlines support Tech sector leadership SCENARIO 2: FVG Retest Then Long (50% probability) Price pulls back to fill FVG at $25,100-$25,300, then resumes uptrend to $26,000+. Rejection at $25,400-$25,600 resistance Pullback to FVG $25,100-$25,300 (fill imbalance) Strong defense at FVG = long opportunity Resume uptrend, break $25,600, target $26,000-$26,500 Triggers: Profit-taking after INSANE rally Nvidia shares dipped after initial +4% (caution) Nvidia CFO "equilibrium" comment (removes wishful dynamic) Salesforce weak guidance (enterprise software pressure) Overbought conditions (need healthy pullback) FVG needs to be filled (technical requirement) US-Iran talks Thursday (wait-and-see) Geopolitical risk (caution before talks) This would be a HEALTHY pullback to fill the imbalance before continuation. The FVG at $25,100-$25,300 is a high-probability retest zone. The ascending trendline at $24,700 and support at $24,100-$24,700 provide strong downside protection. Nvidia Earnings - Beat But Mixed Reaction The Numbers: Q4 revenue: $66 BILLION (68% jump, beat estimates) Q1 forecast: $72 BILLION (64% jump, above expectations) 13 consecutive quarters beating estimates Profit higher than expected AI-fueled demand for advanced chips The Reaction: Shares initially +4% after hours Then DIPPED back (profit-taking) Mixed reaction to CFO comments "Supply-demand equilibrium" = removes wishful dynamic Inventory grew despite commitments Chinese sales uncertain Why This Matters: Nvidia = bellwether for tech sector and AI theme Beat expectations BUT reaction mixed "Equilibrium" comment = psychological headwind No more supply shortage narrative (less FOMO) Competition rising (Alphabet, AMD) Revenue growth slowing (68% vs prior quarters) Bar to impress rising (expectations high) Market Impact: MIXED. Nvidia beat expectations, which is bullish. But the CFO's "equilibrium" comment and inventory growth suggest the supply shortage narrative is over. The initial +4% then dip shows profit-taking. This could trigger a healthy pullback to FVG before the next leg up. AI Sentiment Shift - Partnerships > Disruption What Changed: Monday: AI disruption panic (software -25% YTD) IBM -13%, Workday -10%, cybersecurity selloff Tuesday: Software stocks RALLIED Focus shifted to Anthropic PARTNERSHIPS Companies may survive and thrive WITH AI Rethink of selloff extent Cathie Wood vs Citrini: Citrini: AI = 10.2% unemployment, S&P 500 -38% by 2028 Cathie Wood: AI = productivity boom, entrepreneurial explosion ARK: AI = real GDP growth acceleration, lower inflation Wood: Short-term disruptions → great opportunities Market choosing Wood's narrative (for now) Market Impact: BULLISH short-term. The sentiment shift from "AI disruption" to "AI partnerships" is driving the rally. Software stocks recovered. But the Citrini concerns persist - Workday -10% shows disruption fears are real. This is a tug-of-war between two narratives. Global AI Infrastructure Theme - South Korea, Japan The Data: South Korea Kospi: +45% YTD, +2% today Japan Nikkei: +2.2% today Focus: AI capex benefiting infrastructure companies Chips, data centers, energy demand Yuan strengthened (China AI chip demand) Why This Matters: Global AI infrastructure buildout accelerating Not just U.S. - Asia leading South Korea +45% YTD = INSANE Companies aiding AI infrastructure outperforming Validates Nvidia's AI capex narrative Market Impact: MASSIVELY BULLISH. The global AI infrastructure theme is REAL. South Korea +45% YTD shows the scale of the opportunity. This supports Nvidia's earnings and the broader tech rally. FVG (Fair Value Gap) - Technical Retest Likely What is FVG: Fair Value Gap = imbalance created during rapid price move Price moved too fast, leaving gap at $25,100-$25,300 Markets often return to fill these gaps High-probability retest zone Why FVG Retest Likely: INSANE rally from $24,100 to $25,357 (too fast) Overbought conditions (need healthy pullback) Nvidia mixed reaction (profit-taking) Salesforce weak guidance (enterprise software pressure) US-Iran talks Thursday (wait-and-see caution) Technical requirement to fill imbalance Trading Strategy: If pullback to FVG $25,100-$25,300 = LONG opportunity Strong defense at FVG = high-probability long Stops below $25,000 psychological level Target: $26,000-$26,500 after FVG fill Salesforce Weak Guidance - Enterprise Software Pressure What Happened: Salesforce -4.6% after hours FY2027 revenue guidance: $45.80B-$46.20B Midpoint below estimates ($46.06B) Bumper quarterly earnings BUT weak outlook Enterprise software demand under pressure Why This Matters: Shows AI disruption concerns are REAL Enterprise software facing headwinds Economic growth uncertainty AI industry disruptions Not all tech is benefiting from AI Market Impact: BEARISH for enterprise software, but NEUTRAL for Nasdaq 100. Salesforce weakness shows AI disruption is real for some sectors. But the Nasdaq is driven by Nvidia, semiconductors, and AI infrastructure - not enterprise software. My Game Plan 50/50 scenario: I'm NEUTRAL here with equal weight to both scenarios. On one hand, the momentum is INSANE (rally from $24,100 to $25,357). Nvidia beat expectations. AI sentiment shifted to partnerships. Cathie Wood's productivity boom narrative is winning. Global AI infrastructure theme (South Korea +45% YTD) is REAL. On the other hand, Nvidia's mixed reaction (initial +4% then dip), CFO "equilibrium" comment, Salesforce weak guidance, and the FVG at $25,100-$25,300 suggest a healthy pullback is likely. Breakout scenario (50%): If we break $25,600 with volume, I'm targeting $26,000-$26,500. The AI infrastructure theme is too strong. Nvidia beat expectations. Global momentum (South Korea, Japan) supports continuation. FVG retest scenario (50%): If we get rejected at $25,600, I'm watching for a pullback to FVG $25,100-$25,300. This would be a HEALTHY retest to fill the imbalance. I'd look to long at FVG with stops below $25,000. The ascending trendline at $24,700 provides strong support. Key level: $25,600 resistance. Break = long to $26,000+. Reject = FVG retest at $25,100-$25,300, then long. The Bottom Line I'm giving this a 50/50 setup - EQUALLY WEIGHTED scenarios: Bullish factors (breakout): INSANE rally momentum ($24,100 → $25,357) Nvidia beat expectations (AI capex theme) AI sentiment shift (partnerships > disruption) Cathie Wood productivity boom narrative Global AI infrastructure (South Korea +45% YTD) Ascending trendlines support Tech sector leadership Bearish factors (FVG retest): Nvidia mixed reaction (initial +4% then dip) CFO "equilibrium" comment (removes wishful dynamic) Salesforce weak guidance (enterprise software pressure) FVG at $25,100-$25,300 unfilled (technical requirement) Overbought conditions (need healthy pullback) US-Iran talks Thursday (wait-and-see) Profit-taking after INSANE rally The $25,600 resistance is KEY. Break above = long to $26,000-$26,500. Reject = FVG retest at $25,100-$25,300, then long from there. Either way, the trend is UP. The question is: Do we go straight up, or do we get a healthy pullback to FVG first? What do you think? Breakout or FVG retest? Drop your take! 👇 If this helped, smash that 🚀 Boost button! Not financial advice. DYOR.