COIN Finds a Bid at the Floor While the Market Picks a SideCoinbase Global, Inc. Class ABATS:COINstingrayeaCoinbase is trading at $183.94 sitting at just 15.4% of its price range between $141.09 floor and $419.78 ceiling. The read is tight bull at 10.78% edge with a 1.24x multiplier — barely bullish. The 55.4/44.6 split with 44% clarity tells you the market is almost evenly divided. But volume is strong at 1.82 Z-score with bull dominant flow and accelerating momentum, while the stock has already bounced 32% off lows at a balanced 1.1x. Someone is buying COIN near the floor. The question is whether the structure can support continuation. Price Structure The retrace is severe at -30.1% from the $419.78 high. The 32% bounce at 1.1x balanced classification means the recovery is real but hasn't tipped into a confirmed reversal. Balanced means buyers and sellers are roughly equal in the bounce — neither side has taken control. The spread is tight at just 14.3%, confirming how contested this range is. No squeeze building. Pattern total is 1:1 and harami is 1:1 — perfect deadlock in the reversal signals. This is a stock that got cut nearly in half and has recovered a third of the damage. Whether that recovery is a dead cat bounce or the early stage of a reversal depends entirely on what volume and momentum do from here. Directional Bias Total signals run 28 green vs 21 red across 112 checks — a 57.1/42.9 split classified as tight with deep sub-classification. EMAs are dead even at 3:3. Ichimoku 7:6. Candles favor bulls 9:5 which is the strongest bullish lean in the signal set. Counter-trend at 8:6 is nearly split. Engulfing is 0:0 — no strong reversal candles in either direction. DD/SS at 4:3. Momentum is the bright spot. Bull with rising direction and bandwidth at 39.42%. That rising bullish momentum within a contested structure is the early signal that the balance may be tipping. When momentum leads while signals are split, momentum usually wins. But at 39.42% bandwidth there's still room for expansion in either direction. Volume Intelligence Volume Z at 1.82 is strong and it's accelerating at 1.43 momentum. Total volume is 23.79M against a supply base of 4.38B. The directional flow is bull dominant with a bull Z of 2.27 vs bear Z of -0.92. That's a significant imbalance — buyers are outpacing sellers at over 2 sigma intensity. Short-term momentum is expanding at 169.4%. The 1:5 timeframe comparison shows 1.82 short-term vs 0.39 longer-term — the buying is fresh and concentrated in the near term. That gap between short and long timeframe volume means this bid is new, not a gradual build. No whale activity flagged and no volume squeeze, but the 2.27 bull Z with accelerating momentum doesn't need whale confirmation. Broad institutional flow is showing up. OBV Z at -0.98 with strong upward direction is the accumulation reversal signal. Cumulative OBV is still negative from prior distribution, but the strong upward direction means that distribution is being reversed in real time. When OBV crosses from negative to positive while maintaining strong upward direction, it typically marks the structural turn from distribution to accumulation. It's not there yet but heading that way. Scenarios Bullish (45%): Volume leads the turn. Bull Z at 2.27 with accelerating momentum and OBV reversing upward form the base case for recovery continuation. If OBV Z crosses positive, the accumulation thesis confirms. Rising bullish momentum at 39.42% bandwidth has room to expand. The 32% bounce already shows real buying interest at the floor. First target would be the $210-220 zone where prior structural levels sit, with the broader recovery targeting the $250+ region if volume sustains. Bearish (35%): The tight signal set at 57.1/42.9 can't sustain the recovery. EMAs at 3:3 and counter-trend at 8:6 mean the structure hasn't turned — it's only contested. If bull Z fades below 2.0 and the accelerating volume momentum stalls, the 32% bounce becomes a dead cat. Retest of the $141-150 zone would be in play. The -30.1% retrace from $419.78 is the kind of damage that often sees secondary lows before a real bottom forms. Sideways (20%): Price ranges between $170-200 as the tight bull classification plays out. The 14.3% spread and 1:1 pattern totals support extended consolidation. Volume normalizes from the 1.82 Z-score while OBV Z works its way toward zero. The market takes time to decide whether the floor is real. What to Watch OBV Z crossing zero from -0.98 to positive is the key confirmation. That flip would mean distribution has officially reversed to accumulation. Bull Z sustaining above 2.0 for multiple sessions confirms the buying isn't a one-off. EMAs breaking from 3:3 deadlock to bullish majority would validate the trend shift. Rising momentum bandwidth expanding above 45% would show bullish energy is building, not fading. On the bearish side, if bull Z drops below 1.5 while OBV Z stalls below zero, the buying is failing to convert to structural accumulation. A harami or pattern total shift from 1:1 to bearish majority would signal the bounce is exhausting. Risk Note Price at 15.4% of its range after a -30.1% retrace is either deep value or a value trap. The volume evidence leans toward accumulation with bull dominant flow and OBV reversing, but the directional signals are nearly split and clarity sits at just 44%. The balanced bounce at 1.1x hasn't proven itself as a reversal. Position sizing should reflect the uncertainty — tight signals with strong volume often resolve in favor of volume, but the resolution isn't immediate. Let OBV and bull Z confirm before committing full size. COIN's correlation to broader crypto sentiment adds an external variable that the signal set can't capture. Volume is bidding at the floor. Structure hasn't decided. Follow the flow, not the opinion.