Written by: R Swaminathan6 min readFeb 25, 2026 04:20 PM IST First published on: Feb 25, 2026 at 04:20 PM ISTThe third round of indirect talks between Iran and the United States is scheduled to take place this afternoon, amid mixed signals from both sides and rising global anxiety about what may come next. Diplomacy is moving forward, but under the shadow of military escalation. Tehran has signalled that it hopes to reach a fast agreement to prevent what it calls an unnecessary and disastrous war, yet it has also made clear that it is prepared for conflict if diplomacy fails. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump appears surprised that Iran has not capitulated, despite Washington deploying its largest military presence in the Middle East since the invasion of Iraq in 2003.In his State of the Union address yesterday, Trump noted that though the US had obliterated Iran’s nuclear program, it wants to start all over again, and he will launch a strike unless Iran agrees to curb its nuclear programme. The US force in the region now consists of 18 warships, including two aircraft carriers. More warships are expected to join. Flight tracking data shows a surge in activity, with multiple squadrons of attack aircraft, aerial refuelling tankers, cargo transport planes, and surveillance planes moving between the US, Europe, and the Middle East.AdvertisementAlso Read | Behind Donald Trump’s Iran strategy, a pursuit of oil, not regime changeHowever, this massive US firepower is within the range of Iran’s ballistic missiles, which are capable of striking targets from Tel Aviv to US bases in the Gulf. Iran has also been flexing its muscles. On February 17, Tehran closed the Strait of Hormuz for several hours for naval drills. Around a quarter of the world’s oil and gas supply passes through this narrow strait. These drills were followed by joint naval exercises in the region with Russia, and media reports suggest Iran has secured deals with Moscow for thousands of advanced shoulder-fired missiles to bolster its air defences and purchase of anti-ship cruise missiles from Beijing.What do these developments signify? Are the negotiations genuine attempts at compromise, or merely preparations for possible conflict, as was the case when Israel started the 12-day war, joined by the US on the last day?President Trump has indicated openness to a deal, but will need significantly higher Iranian concessions than those of the Obama administration’s 2015 nuclear agreement. That deal limited Iran’s uranium enrichment to 3.67 per cent and capped its enriched uranium stockpile at 300 kilograms. Unless Trump can secure terms that he considers demonstrably stronger, the possibility of military action cannot be dismissed.AdvertisementTo significantly degrade Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities, the US would have to strike hundreds of sites across the country, including mobile missile launchers that are inherently difficult to track and destroy. If the objective is to overthrow Iran’s supreme leadership, the target list would expand further. Such an operation would likely take weeks or months, and not only would it destabilise the region, but it would also expose approximately 40,000 US military personnel stationed across bases in the region. While Washington may be considering a limited strike, Iran’s retaliation could be swift and severe. As such, any military option may not be in Trump’s interest with midterm elections due in nine months.Also Read | West Asia holds its breath as Iran and US return to talksThere are also serious diplomatic constraints. Key US partners in the Gulf have reportedly informed Washington that they would not permit their territory to be used as launch platforms for an attack on Iran. Iran has further warned that it would retaliate against any country that supports a US military operation, raising doubts about whether Washington could secure the necessary overflight rights or logistical support for sustained air operations. These limitations complicate the feasibility of even a limited strike.Iran, despite being beset by widespread student-led protests in Tehran and elsewhere this week, is playing its weak hand with strategic clarity for the survival of the regime. Its concessions may include lowering uranium enrichment levels to as little as 1 per cent, suspending enrichment temporarily, and agreeing to enhanced monitoring under the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Additional Protocol, besides the transfer of a significant amount of the 408 kg of 60 per cent enriched uranium to a third country such as Russia and diluting the balance to an agreed level.However, Iran has made clear that it will not negotiate restrictions on its ballistic missile programme or its support for regional proxy groups such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi militias. In addition, Tehran has reportedly offered significant economic opportunities in its oil sector to US companies as part of a broader settlement. In return, Iran’s core demands are: The lifting of sanctions and firm guarantees that the United States will abide by any commitments it makes. Whether Iran’s proposed concessions will be sufficient to persuade President Trump to step back from the brink remains uncertain.you may likeThe stakes extend far beyond the immediate parties. Even a limited war would have profound economic consequences, particularly for countries heavily dependent on Gulf energy supplies. With a substantial share of global oil and gas transiting the Strait of Hormuz, any disruption could trigger sharp price increases, supply shortages, and global economic instability. For energy-dependent economies, including India, the costs of escalation would be immediate and severe.As of now, diplomacy and military power are unfolding in parallel. The third round of indirect talks offers a chance to produce a workable compromise. Trump will be well advised to heed the lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan and not Venezuela.The writer is former Governor of India to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Vienna