Renewed uncertainty around tariffs weighs on the Indian Rupee amid Trump threats

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FUNDAMENTALOVERVIEWUSD:The USdollar weakened across the board on Friday after the US Supreme Court struckdown Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. The resulting policy uncertainty is what islikely to have weighed on the greenback, even though nothing has reallychanged.Trump hasalready imposed new tariffs under a different law and USTR Greer has statedthat the tariff deals remain in place and they will be honoured. Moreover, thenew levies actually reduce the effective average tariff rate.The dollarrecouped most of the losses, but it might remain rangebound for now as tradersawait new catalysts and further developments. The realrisks remain a potential US-Iran military escalation which could boost thegreenback on severe risk-off mood or a hawkish repricing on stronger US datawhich would have a positive effect on the USD. Fed’s Waller placed a great dealon next week’s NFP report. INR:The Indian Rupee remainson a bearish structural trend against the US dollar. After a short-term boostfrom the US-India trade deal that reduced tariffs to 18%, the INR restarted itsdownward trend.The US SupremeCourt ruling on Trump’s tariffs on Friday triggered a positive spike in theRupee on expectations of lower tariffs, but after Trump quickly reimposed themusing different laws, the gains were pared back.This created someuncertainty in the short-term and both countries have decided to defer tradetalks that were due this week “until both sides are able to study theimplications of recent developments”.Trump has threatened to impose higher tariffs on countries that "play games" with recent trade deals, so it wouldn't be surprising to see him doing something crazy out of the blue. This is a risk that could keep weighing on the Rupee. USDINR TECHNICALANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the dailychart, we can see that USDINR has been creeping up slowly as dip-buyers started to pile in nearthe lower bound of the channel. The target remains the top trendline around the93.00 handle. The sellers will want to see the price breaking below the lowerbound of the channel to open the door for new lows with the 89.50 level as thefirst target.USDINR TECHNICALANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hourchart, we can see that the price broke above the key resistance zone around the91.00 handle and got stuck in a consolidation. The spike lower was caused bythe US Supreme Court ruling, which was quickly faded. The buyers will likelycontinue to step in around the 91.00 support to keep pushing into new highs,while the buyers will look for a break lower to target a pullback into thelower bound of the channel.USDINR TECHNICALANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hourchart, there’s not much we can add here as traders will likely continue to playthe range until we get a breakout on either side. UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures and the third round ofUS-Iran talks. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US PPI report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.