USDJPY, Elliott wave analysisU.S. DOLLAR / JAPANESE YENFX_IDC:USDJPYEWA-tokyo■Outlook of USDJPY on 12h chart. USDJPY Elliott Wave Analysis: Ongoing Su-bwave 4 and Triangle Scenario. In my previous analysis, I clarified the internal structure of wave (iii) and indicated that sub-wave 4 is currently in progress. Furthermore, I suggested that sub-wave 4 may be unfolding as either a triangle or a complex corrective pattern. The current chart presents a scenario based on the assumption of a developing triangle formation. As mentioned in the previous post, there is a high probability that wave 5 will extend. If this scenario proves correct, the termination point of wave 4 should briefly break below the gray channel line, be supported by the upper-degree green channel line, and then move back above the channel. Over the coming weeks, we should closely monitor whether sub-wave E develops into an overshooting move. The invalidation level for the triangle scenario is a break below the end of sub-wave C at 152.259. My upper-degree scenario would be invalidated if the price breaks below the end of wave 1 at 150.919. --------------------------------------------------- Feb 24, 2026 -1D. Feb 4, 2026 -1M.