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earlier projection of +1.63 MMT.  That follows a -3.46 MMT deficit in 2024-25.  ISO said the surplus is being driven by increased sugar production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan.  ISO is forecasting a +3.0% y/y rise in global sugar production to 181.3 million MMT in 2025-26. Expectations of Higher Global Coffee Production Weigh on PricesCocoa Prices Consolidate Above Recent LowsAre Wheat Prices too Low?Stop Missing Market Moves: Get the FREE Barchart Brief – your midday dose of stock movers, trending sectors, and actionable trade ideas, delivered right to your inbox. Sign Up Now!On February 12, sugar prices plunged to 5.25-year nearest-futures lows on concern that a global sugar surplus will persist.  On February 11, analysts from sugar trader Czarnikow said they expect a global sugar surplus of 3.4 MMT in the 2026/27 crop year, following an 8.3 MMT surplus in 2025/26.   Also, Green Pool Commodity Specialists said on January 29 that they expect a 2.74 MMT global sugar surplus for 2025/26 and a 156,000 MT surplus for 2026/27.  Meanwhile, StoneX said February 13 that it expects a global sugar surplus of 2.9 MMT in 2025/26.Signs of lower sugar output in Brazil are supportive of sugar prices, after Unica last Wednesday reported that sugar production in Brazil's Center-South in the second half of January fell by 36% y/y to only 5,000 MT.  However, cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output through January is up by +0.9% y/y to 40.24 MMT.  Also, the ratio of cane crushed for sugar rose to 50.74% in 2025/26 from 48.14% in 2024/25.An excessively short position by funds in NY sugar futures could add fuel to a short-covering rally.  Last Friday's weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed funds boosted their short position in NY sugar futures and options by 14,381 in the week ended February 17 to a record high 265,324 net short positions (data from 2006).Consulting firm Safras & Mercado said on December 23 that Brazil's sugar production in 2026/27 will fall by -3.91% to 41.8 MMT from 43.5 MMT expected in 2025/26.  The firm expects Brazil's sugar exports in 2026/27 to fall by -11% y/y to 30 MMT.On Wednesday, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) projected India's 2025/26 sugar production at 29.3 MMT, up 12% y/y, below an earlier projection of 30.95 MMT.  The ISMA reported January 19 that India's 2025-26 sugar output from Oct 1-Jan 15 was up +22% y/y to 15.9 MMT.  The ISMA also cut its estimate for sugar used for ethanol production in India to 3.4 MMT from a July forecast of 5 MMT, which may allow India to boost its sugar exports.  India is the world's second-largest sugar producer. 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