EURUSD ANALYSISEuro/US DollarFX:EURUSDeediizEURUSD has been trading in a downtrend for the past 5 weeks, since it made a its peak in price movement. The underlying cause for this is in part technical and fundamental. It is largely assumed and forecasted by investors and analysts that EUR will gain by the year end, but for now it has peaked near around 2021 prices, where lies a technical long term structural high. This reason alone is not a case for a large sell off, but a more cautious price discovery that still heavily relies on change of US foreign policy, its huge (growing) debt and how the market and bond vigilantes assess the US dollars position in the world market. The short term price outlook still depends on the macroeconomics and in particular FED rate policy. The selloff from recent highs is caused by multiple of factors including: a stronger and more stable US labor market, inflation expectations and the coming of a new FED chairman. Recently markets have priced in a more hawkish FED and stronger labor market. Implicating that intrests rate will lower slower then expected. The market is pricing roughly ~2 rate cuts by year-end 2026 (~0.50% total easing) — i.e., two 25-basis-point reductions — though timing and odds are still low early in the year, in June at first or later. As ECB is done cutting interest rates and has signaled that it does not intent to change them. An ECB survey published later Friday showed inflation expectations in the euro zone waning in January. Consumers in the bloc saw prices rising 2.6% over the next 12 months — down from 2.8% in the previous poll. Since the EU economic area growth remains stable but subdued at 0.3% GDP growth QoQ and 1.3% YOY. EU inflation is somewhat stable and is forecasted to lower in the next 12 months. The market has priced in a sluggish EU economy and relies heavy on US data for direction. Since technical market signals a counter trend to the general EURUSD uptrend, we can expect this to continue until a more stronger case for dollar weakness becomes evident. As of right now, I believe dollar will, in short term, show some moderate, but limited gains until the general market directions comes in to play. When will EURUSD and at what price will it continue its bullish uptrend is not clear. The markets are waiting for new data for direction. But I think that 1.16700-800 will remain the extent of euro weakness in these market conditions. A weaker labor US market, a stronger EUR economy and falling inflation in US will result in a retry in of the previous high in EURUSD. The question for me right now is, if it is going to sell further, how much or at what price I would expect a continuation on the main trend? I would personally think that around 1.158 price would be the lowest bulls would let go. The 4H technical price action chart does indicate a short term bullish momentum, with a cap around 1.183 and 1.187. But it may fall flat if next weeks Nonfarm payrolls show a stronger reading. The baseline forecast is on the low end and the previous surprise signaled a stronger labor market. For now I am largely undecided on the next move and how. MAYBE A LONG AT 1.17 WITH A TIGHT STOP WOULD DO IN THIS MARKET. If you have some idea, please let me know in the comments. Thank you for your time.