Hours into the US and Israel’s attacks on Iran, the first signal came in the form of an Israeli assessment in local media: that Iran’s Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — the country’s topmost leader — was possibly dead.Hours later, US President Donald Trump and Iranian state media confirmed the news — an airstrike had killed Khamenei in his office.So, what’s next for Iran, the region, the world and India? These are the crucial questions before everyone as the fighting continues.Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who led the Iranian Revolution that ousted the Pahlavis, founded the Islamic Republic in 1979. Two years later, Ali Khamenei became Iran’s President. He succeeded Khomeini as Supreme Leader in 1989.So, for 45 of the Islamic Republic’s 47 years in existence, Khamenei has been at the helm or near-helm — giving him absolute power over the arc of Iran’s internal and external politics.And externally, he turned the theocratic state into a powerful regional player and an arch foe of US and Iran. Under his watch, the Iranian regime became more powerful than ever, with indigenous technology development and a muscle-flexing military in the form of the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).Also Read | Ayatollah Ali Khamenei dead: How the Supreme Leader transformed IranInternally, he ruthlessly crushed dissent, be it from the political opposition, civil society or the common people on the streets.Story continues below this adThe Americans led the West in imposing sanctions on the Iranian regime. While the regime survived, the people of Iran bore the brunt of the economic hardship.These hardships triggered some of Iran’s biggest protests in decades in December 2025 and January. The regime put down the protest violently, killing thousands.A month later, as Khamenei lay dead, Iranian streets reflected contrasting images. Social media posts showed celebrations on the streets in Isfahan, Tehran and Shiraz. And state-run TV displayed images of people mourning and weeping.What happens now in Iran?Besides Khamenei, senior members of the Iranian regime have also been killed. Story continues below this adThe state-run IRNA news agency announced the death of Maj. Gen. Mohammad Pakpour, who took over as the IRGC’s top commander after Israel killed its previous commander in the 12-day war last June.Also killed was Ali Shamkhani, who has long been a top security adviser to Khamenei, IRNA said. For the Iranian regime, the loss of Khamenei and the others is an unprecedented situation. But replacing Khamenei is something they have been preparing for for years, amid reports of the leader’s frail health.Also Read | Before he ruled Iran, Ayatollah Khamenei visited Karnataka and KashmirFor Iran, there are three possible scenarios currently — continuity in the regime, a military takeover and a collapse of the regime.Story continues below this adThe regime is already taking steps to ensure the first scenario takes place. An 88-member body of clerics, the Assembly of Experts, will pick Khamenei’s successorUntil it chooses a name, the regime has announced a temporary council including the President that will oversee the transition.The contendersAfter the death of top contender, President Ebrahim Raisi, in a May 2024 chopper accident, Khamenei had reportedly named three clerics as possible successors.Story continues below this adTheir names have never been made public, but speculation in the Iranian policy and media has identified possible figures: Hojjat-ol-Eslam Mohsen Qomi, a key advisor in Khamenei’s office; Ayatollah Mohsen Araki, a long-time member of the Assembly of Experts;Ayatollah Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei, the head of Iran’s judiciary; Ayatollah Hashem Hosseini Bushehri, the Qom Friday prayer leader.As can be seen from their positions and titles, they are all Khamenei loyalists who have worked with and under the supervision of the former Supreme leader. Except for Chief Justice Ejei, none of them have held any top administrative jobs. All of them are in their 60s, unlike Khamenei who became the Supreme leader at 50.Also Read | Khamenei killing: As Reza Pahlavi again throws hat into the ring, a look at how the Shah ruled IranThere is also some thought and discussion in the Iranian leadership about a collective leadership, an idea that did not find favour during Khamenei’s time. This is also informed by Khamenei’s own experience of a difficult relationship with then President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani in his early years as the Supreme leader.Another candidate in the mix is Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the Islamic Republic’s founder, as he had stepped in for Khamenei at an important event.Is a military takeover possible?Story continues below this adIn the three scenarios outlined above, the second one is a possible military takeover. The IRGC has emerged as the lynchpin for protecting the interests of the regime. The Revolutionary Guard, along with the Basij paramilitary, has been instrumental in putting down protests against the regime. Appointing a figure associated with the Iranian military could be a compelling option to keep the house in order and ensure the regime’s survival.In that case, Speaker of the Parliament and a key confidant of Khamenei, Ali Larijani is a possible contender. He had visited India more than a decade ago. Larijani has articulated the regime’s language of “revenge”, vowing that Iranian forces will fight even harder on Sunday. Larijani, however, added that there would be continuity of governance. Ali Larijani, former chairman of the parliament of Iran. ReutersAn IRGC takeover would be a formal shakedown of the arrangement that had existed since the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. This will be a replication of what some other countries in the region have practiced — Pakistan which is shadow-controlled by the military or Egypt, which has a former Army chief as the President in civilian clothes.Story continues below this adBut, IRGC’s credibility has also taken a hit, as it has not been able to protect and shield its assets and top leadership through conventional means.Is a regime change possible?That brings us to the third scenario of a regime collapse — a key objective outlined by the Trump administration, and gleefully anticipated by the Israeli leadership.“This is the single greatest chance for the Iranian people to take back their Country,” Trump has said.But while bombing targets from 30,000 feet is easy, toppling a regime is not.Story continues below this adAlso Read | Iran’s border-sharing neighbours: Why Tehran has a complicated relationship with mostFor the people to take over, they will need logistical support on the ground to overpower the Iranian military, the IRGC as well as the Basij.That would mean setting up a massive supply of weapons and logistics — and deploying boots on the ground. This is a strategic and political call that Trump has to take, while balancing the demands of his MAGA base.Even if the regime collapses, the US will have to come up with a plan to have someone to lead the new regime.The tensions in the regionIran has attacked US bases in at least six countries — Qatar, Bahrain, UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Jordan. The Iranians are also targeting some civilian areas in the UAE where they believe American soldiers and officials live and work.The widening of the theatre of conflict has plunged the Gulf and the Middle East into uncertainty. So high have tensions been that even Saudi Arabia and the UAE appear to be putting aside months of strain. Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman Saturday pledged support to UAE’s ruler Mohamed bin Zayed. An Iranian attack seen from Dubai. ReutersThere are also reports suggesting that Trump was persuaded to target Iran’s regime and the top brass, by two unlikely allies — Israel and Saudi Arabia.The fact that the Iranian Supreme leader’s whereabouts and confirmation of his death came in quickly couldn’t have happened without on-ground complicity from Tehran. That could mean that the regional players have had some role or moles in the Iranian system.So far, Iran has carefully targeted military bases and civilian areas to intimidate regional partners who have given space to American military equipment and personnel.For Tehran, the best case scenario is dragging out the war for days and weeks, and then hope that the regional players come together for a ceasefire. The regional rivals would not want to jeopardise the security of their own population because of the attacks by Tehran.Also read | Where UAE stands in Israel-US-Iran conflictThe consequences for the worldIran’s most effective weapon is not even a weapon. It has closed down the Strait of Hormuz, a 21-km wide chokepoint through which about 20% of the global oil supply passes. This would jeopardise the energy security of many countries across the world that depend on the Gulf and the Middle East.Now, American fleets may find themselves forced to unblock the strait. This conflict has been brewing for decades, but a full-scale war and an unstable Iran is a situation no country in the world is prepared for.Europe has been at war for more than four years now, and the Afghanistan-Pakistan theatre has also been active with attacks and counter-attacks. In such a scenario, the war in the Middle East has strategic consequences for the world, as countries like the UAE, Qatar and Bahrain have more foreign nationals and expats than their local population.That brings us to the impact on IndiaIndia has about nine million diaspora spread across the Gulf and Middle East region. Their safety and welfare has been the cornerstone of India’s diaspora diplomacy in the last three decades, when the population of the Indian community in these countries have grown.In a sense, these are the sole breadwinners in many families in Kerala, UP, Bengal, Bihar, Odisha — and these blue-collared workers are the biggest remittance senders to India. Estimates suggest that more than a third of India’s remittances comes from the Middle East and the Gulf countries — the number is somewhere around 38 pc of India’s remittances.The other strategic impact is the blow to India’s energy security that can be the casualty of a prolonged conflict — as almost 60 pc of India’s energy imports come from the region, which include about 50 pc of oil imports and 70 pc of LNG imports.Also Read | Delhi calls for dialogue but its diplomatic tightrope gets tighterAny disruption in the energy supply chain would be catastrophic for India’s economy, especially at a time when India has been barred from buying oil from Russia, under threat of Trump tariffs.This puts India in a diplomatically and economically difficult, if not precarious, situation.India would also have to see and think of its plan B after the Iranian leader’s killing by the US — as it would have invested in the political landscape in the new cast of characters that might emerge.India has had a long, historical relationship, and has strategic ties with most of them across the aisle, and Delhi’s diplomatic abilities will be tested in such an uncharted territory as it navigates the current turmoil.