Making my profits bloom - long BE at 168.57Bloom Energy Corporation Class ABATS:BEredwingcoachSo let me start by saying that what you see on the chart isn't anything special - any idiot trading Bloom in the past year could have made bathtubs full of money using just about any long method out there, including simply tossing a coin on any given day and buying. I make no special claims in that regard. I am here today because Bloom is in my #1 conviction space for this year - energy. Most specifically, energy related to AI data centers. I think that we will soon be running into the same thing that we've already run into with the likes of MU and SNDK - too much demand, not enough supply. I think that it's just getting started, too. Everyone is fretting about AI spend, but think about it - the likes of GOOG, AMZN, META etc. are still spending like crazy. The components makers have rightly shot up with them. But much of that capacity hasn't even been built and come online yet. The energy demand curve will always trail the build out curve. This confers 2 advantages: 1- the demand for energy hasn't yet hit the mind-blowing levels demand for hardware has. 2 - if/when AI buildout peaks, energy demand will not yet have peaked, so if there is indeed an AI bubble (and I personally do not think that comes ANY time soon with regard to fundamentals), companies like Bloom will get advanced warning from dropoffs in the chip and memory makers' backlogs/orders. I think it is a much safer way to play AI if you are scared of a bubble. But if you follow me, or even look at this chart, you know that I don't ever stick around to wait until parties are over if I can help it. My trades are designed to be quick hitters, to take the money and run. And here is the most important reason I am here. It's not because I'm an amazing stock picker who buys and holds for 20x gains. That life is too dangerous for me. When the party does stop, or is even perceived to be over, I'd get crushed unless I can do what 98% of humanity can't, which is pick exact tops - and I can't. But occasionally, as the chart shows as well, I catch them anyway. I am here because if this is a top for Bloom, it doesn't really matter. The same method I am using here, which has admittedly underperformed simply buying and holding of Bloom this year, was first tested in situations like Feb of 2021 to the fall of 2024 when buy and holders of Bloom would have lost 80% diamond-handing it all the way down. And I'm not criticizing them. If they are still holding, they're way ahead. But they had to survive that 80% drawdown and I bet most who were long at the beginning of that didn't stay in until now. I don't like doing that. I have to know that ups or downs, I will make money. Always more on the ups than the downs, but I don't want to have to weather massive drawdowns. This method was 118-8 during that 80% meltdown in Bloom. And to be sure, there were some lots that got bombed. In fact, the first lot I'd have bought during that drawdown would have been the day after the absolute top. That lot was with me the whole way down. The difference is, all along the way, I would have made bank to offset that loser (and the 7 others who joined it that were down 8-65% as well). At the bottom, including the losers, I'd have been profitable. Not by much, but when you're swimming against the current of an 80% drop, how many long only methods would be? A month after the bottom, when the stock was still down 36% from its peak, I'd have been up 5x my lot size. My point here is this - how much more enjoyable is trading when you don't have to fear the drops? I can tell you firsthand that I like it a LOT more than I did before. And if you couldn't tell from my description of that near -80% lot I would have been holding at the end of all that, I don't use stops. Now I'm not gonna give away all my secrets, but I will tell you that my signaling system for this particular trade, which is a very short term mean reversion trade, involves the use of a pair derivatives of short term moving averages. I can't show them here, because they are private indicators, but they use those moving averages in a very counter-intuitive way, essentially zigging when most are zagging. The important part, I think, isn't even really the signals. It's being willing to take money off the table when I make it rather than let the market take it back. There is an ancient saying that you can't step in the same river twice. I won't waste time explaining that, but as you can see in the chart, you CAN make the same money twice - and I do it every single day with at least one of the stocks in my portfolio. That is the secret to making money on the way down. I use constant dollar value lot sizes, so that 10 5% wins cancel out one 50% loser. When you win 9x as often as you lose, as this method does with Bloom, even in the worst of times, you make profits (or at least massively mitigate losses). The rules from here are simple - I exit at the close of the first bar my trade is profitable. A side benefit of Bloom is that its volatility can make those wins much bigger than most stocks can. But for me, it isn't the size of the win that matters as much as stacking them over and over and over. And when this trade is done, I move my capital to the next stock with the same entry situation I have here with Bloom. And when the next signal for Bloom comes along, you can bet I will be back for more. As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.