Bitcoin (BTC) price istrading at $68,164 on Thursday, February 26, 2026, extendingWednesday's extraordinary 6% surge, the second-best single session in10 months, as a confluence of Trump's State of the Union address, a $323million short squeeze, and $257.7 million in ETF inflows triggeredone of the sharpest relief rallies of the year. Despite thefireworks, from a technical perspective very little has changed: Bitcoinremains trapped in the same $60,000-$72,000 consolidation, sittingroughly 50% below its October all-time high of $126,080. How low canBitcoin go from here? My next bearish target remains at $50,000.Why Bitcoin Surged 6% onWednesday?Wednesday's6.04% rally, pushing Bitcoin from $64,074 to $67,947 by midnight UTC, withintraday highs touching $69,192, was the strongest single session since May2025. Only February 6's extraordinary +12% bounce, which corrected a 14% crashand rebounded from October 2024 lows, was stronger this year.Fivedistinct catalysts converged to trigger the move.Trump'sState of the Union address dominated the narrative, with the president highlighting coolinginflation and record-low mortgage rates, boosting risk appetite across theNasdaq and S&P 500 simultaneously. The broader crypto market surged 6% to$2.42 trillion in a single session.A $323million short squeeze wasthe mechanical engine beneath the rally. As Bitcoin pushed above key levels,leveraged short positions were forcibly liquidated in a feedback loop thatamplified the move, with total trading volume hitting $50.58 billion in 24hours.ETFinstitutional buying providedstructural support rather than just speculation. US spot Bitcoin ETFsposted $257.7 million in inflows on Tuesday, the largest single-daytotal since early February, snapping weeks of daily redemptions. This"smart money" accumulating near $65,000-$66,000 while the Fear &Greed Index sat in extreme fear represents the kind of divergence that oftenprecedes short-term relief rallies.Virallawsuit allegations addedfuel to the fire. A lawsuit filed against Gain Street on February 24 alleged arecurring "10 AM smash" manipulation pattern that had artificiallysuppressed prices during North American morning sessions. The exposure of thisalleged scheme coincided with that pattern disappearing, contributing to theaggressive buying.Bitcoinfell below its estimated average miner production cost of $66,000 for the first time since late2022, a zone that "often aligns with late-stage selling and pricestabilization" historically, triggering contrarian accumulation. Asignificant $10.5 billion options expiry on Friday addsanother layer of complexity, with potential outcomes hinging on Bitcoin'sability to maintain above $70,000.Bitcoin TechnicalAnalysis: Same Consolidation, Still BearishFrom mytechnical perspective, Wednesday's 6% surge changes very little about thestructural picture.Bitcoinremains trapped in the same consolidation range it hasoccupied for weeks: lower boundary at $60,000-$62,000, upperboundary extending to $70,000-$72,000. Thursday's $68,164 pricesits squarely in the middle of this range, not at support, not at resistance,providing no decisive signal in either direction.Theoverall picture remains strongly bearish. Bitcoin is stuck at medium-term lows,approximately 50% below the all-time highs it tested back in October. That'snot a consolidation before a new rally, that's a 50% retracement that has failedto show meaningful recovery for months.I want tobe transparent about how my scenario has evolved. My earliest bearish forecastfrom November called for a drop to $74,000, that was correct. I thenanticipated a bounce from that level back toward the highs, but the expectedrecovery never materialized as Bitcoin kept falling through $74K, $70K, andultimately to $62K territory. I adjusted accordingly.Mycurrent primary bearish target is $50,000, the August 2024 lows, which representsapproximately 30% further downside from current $68,164. In a rangescenario, I also reference $50,000-$52,000 as the 2024 lowszone where I would expect more serious accumulation.The onlyscenario that would change my bearish stance is a sustained return above $76,000,which coincides with April 2025 lows and the 50-day EMA. UntilBitcoin reclaims that level, every rally, including Wednesday's impressive 6%session, is a relief bounce within a downtrend, not a reversal. For the long-termbull case around institutional adoption and Eric Trump's $1 million prediction, we simply need to see that levelreclaimed first.The $60,000 Line: BetweenRelief and CapitulationJamesHarris, CEO at Tesseract Group, identifies the critical battleground withprecision: "Bitcoin is backtesting the February panic lows in the$60K-$63K range, and that zone matters for both psychological and structuralreasons." He notes that "on-chain data suggests there has been meaningfulaccumulation in this area, with buyers stepping in to absorb sellingpressure."The bullscenario, as Harris describes it: "A low-volume retest of these lowsfollowed by a recovery toward the $67K region, which would signal that supplyis drying up rather than accelerating." Thursday's bounce to $68,164technically fits this pattern—but sustaining it is the challenge.The bearscenario is more concerning. Harris warns that "the risk sits just below$60K," where "a decisive break would likely trigger stop-outs, margincalls and liquidation-driven selling into already thin liquidity."He emphasizes that despite leverage declining since earlier in the month,"sentiment remains fragile. In a low-confidence environment like this, itdoesn't take much to turn a controlled decline into a cascade, particularlywhen aggressive dip buyers are scarce."How Low Can Bitcoin Go?Retail Has Left the BuildingPaulHoward, Senior Director at Wincent, offers the most structurally bearishframework, one that goes beyond price levels to diagnose what's fundamentallychanged in this cycle."Thelack of adherence to traditional technical indicators has been notable,"Howard observes. "With prices retracing nearly 50% from the $126K high andkey support levels clustered around $60K, the probability of a breakbelow that level now appears higher than a sustained defence of it."His centralthesis is sobering: "We are entering a broader period of consolidation, a'winter chill' phase for digital assets." The reason? "Whilethe underlying ecosystem remains strong and institutional engagement is at anall-time high, the retail capital that historically fuelled prior cyclemomentum has rotated into AI and commodities."Howard'sultimate base scenario is more bearish than my own: "A more constructivebase may form closer to the $40,000 level rather than from asustained rebound at $60,000." He adds that "sentiment andpositioning could become materially more compelling as we approach the $40,000region. By that stage, institutional products and capital flows may be betterpositioned to support a more structured and durable reversal inthe market cycle."Bitcoin Price Analysis, FAQHow low can Bitcoin go in2026?My primarybearish target is $50,000, representing 30% downside from current $68,164. Theultra-bearish range is $50,000-$52,000 (2024 lows zone). James Harris(Tesseract Group) identifies $54,000 as "the next meaningful structuralsupport" if $60,000 breaks, calling that level "the October 2024correction lows". Paul Howard (Wincent) suggests "a more constructivebase may form closer to $40,000 rather than from a sustained rebound at$60,000," citing retail capital rotation into AI and commodities as a structuralshift.Is $50,000 Bitcoinrealistic?It alignswith multiple analytical frameworks. Paul Howard notes "the probability ofa break below $60,000 now appears higher than a sustained defense of it".James Harris warns "a decisive break below $60K would likely triggerstop-outs, margin calls and liquidation-driven selling." Bitcoin ETF totalAUM has fallen 30.5% since start of 2026 ($117B to $81.3B), while Fear &Greed Index sits in "extreme fear". Should I buy Bitcoin now?Bitcoin at$68,164 sits in the middle of a $60,000-$72,000 consolidation range, 46% belowits $126,080 all-time high. Wednesday's $257.7 million ETF inflow showsinstitutional accumulation at lower prices, but total ETF AUM is down 30.5%since January. This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.