Bitcoin SMA's showing changes in pattern and signals Change ?Bitcoin all time history indexINDEX:BTCUSDOrriginalThat chart is full but I will explain cleary, don't worry. To start. on the chart above:- SMA Color RED = 50 BLUE = 100 Orange day count boxes for ATH to SMA Bearish cross over Blue to next Bullish cross over. Grey Bullish cross over to ATH Yellow Box at end using -100 days each time ATH to cross over, First thing to see is the Orange box count, descending by around 100 days per cycle. This is ATH to Bearish crossover. 2013 ATH to Crossovere = 504 2017 ATH to Crossovere = 427 2021 ATH to Crossovere = 315 So we could project that is next bearish crossover this cycle would be in the 200 day count. And the rapidity of the descent from ATH and how we have already reached the support levels of the 200 SMA * Not shown) , could support this......and would bring us to the End of April for that crossover Lets look a little closer at this. If we project the 50 and 100 SMA on the current trajectory, that Bearish cross over would be in NOVEMBER So, already we are in a Change of pattern, unless Bitcoin Crashes So Low, So Fast that we get that cross over with in the next 7 weeks. Possible i suppose. However, it has to be said that the day counts in Blue BELOW PA, showing Bullish Crossover to Bearish Crossover also project a Bearish Crossover in Q4, around November also. So while this has confluence witn tne projected 50 and 100 SMA, it does break the pattern we have seen in the last 3 cycles of the reducing day count to Bearish cross over after ATH, by 100 days. IF the Bearish crossover is in Novenmber, that is near 400 days after ATH, as we had in 2017. What else ? Also look at how the Bearish Crossovers are so near the Cycle Lows....near the ends of the BEAR RUN (Please ignore last day count on right, left in accidently.) So what has changed here ? In 2013 and 2017, the Bearish crossover was AFTER the Cycle Low. In the 2022 Bear, the Bear Crossover was BEFORE the Cycle Low. This was most likely caused by the excessive pressure put on Crypto by the TradFi World... But what I Still find interesting is how these days counts are between 70 -> 90 days, no matter if the crossover was before or after the Low. This seems to be a Very Good Bottom Zone signal. That was Change number 2 As mentioned earlier, PA is already in a Strong support zone, on the / Around the 200 week SMA and on the Cycle VWAP. The VWAP chart os Below. Notice how VWAP from the current Cycle Low has always acted as strong support, The Bottom of the Bear after its ATH. Current PA is there already. So what could this mean ? What change could this bring to the Bircoin SMA ? If we remain in this Area above and on the Current VWAP, We get an extended day count to the Bearish crossover. If PA pushes Higher, Reaches for an ATH in Q2 as some expect, those 50 and 100 SMA MAY NOT CROSS BEARISH. This could be seen as sensationalist thinking, trying to for good Vibes in a Grey world and I agree,,,,It could be....But we have a number of things that point towards a change of cycle dynamics, the possibility of us entering a Super cycle. PA HAS broken a long term pattern and has fallen below Long term support line and it could be seen as a beginning of a new era in Bitcoin PA and we simply have to wait and see if it happens or not...... What could support an idea of a Q3 Push higher ? In June this year, the monthly MACD reaches Neutral line. The only time the monthly MACD has been below Neutral was in the Super Bear, driven by distrust, TradFi dislike and such...the environment could be different this time..... MACD bouncing in June may not tale PA up right away but it would certainly restore the confidence and.........................................well, we have to wait and see..... To so many extents, Cycle dynamics are different and, yet, others are the same... Change happens in smaall steps....................... Enjoy the ride