ETH - Weekly Legacy Trendline Still IntactEthereumCRYPTO:ETHUSDVIAQUANTToday, I wanted to look at ETH from a macro perspective. According to Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle theory, the bear market is likely not even halfway complete. However, ETH appeared to be forming a macro low—even if only a short-term one. The primary reason for this was the “Legacy Trendline” (black line) that I had drawn on the chart. This trendline originated from the 2022 bear market lows. After the Terra/LUNA collapse and the implosion of Three Arrows Capital, ETH ultimately printed its bear market low near $880. This is interesting as it created its bear market low earlier than Bitcoin (ETH - June 2022 / BTC - November 2022). Rather than anchoring the trendline to that extreme wick, I started it using the weekly wick lows from June 27, 2022, and July 11, 2022. Following those initial touchpoints, the legacy trendline went on to produce multiple significant reactions (green arrows). Even in the current market—February 2026—ETH continued to respect this trendline, forming wick lows on both the February 2, 2026 and February 23, 2026 weekly candles. Another critical factor forming at this level was RSI momentum, which began to resemble conditions last seen in April 2025, just before ETH rallied over 220%. In April 2025: ETH printed four consecutive weekly candles holding the legacy trendline Weekly RSI bottomed in oversold territory at 31.62 This combination marked a macro low and preceded a rally to $4,954 (ATH) In the current market: ETH had already produced two wick touchpoints at the legacy trendline Weekly RSI bottomed at 31.30, nearly identical to April 2025 I want to be clear: this is a very different macro environment. ETH was previously in the year following the halving—a period that historically produced explosive upside, which indeed occurred. This time, ETH has once again found itself at a pivotal structural and momentum inflection point, but during a "bear market" year. Usually that would give even further indication the bottom is in, but since it has only been 185 days since ETH's market cycle top it is too early to say. Several other macro indicators also supported the possibility of a bear market bottom—or at least a meaningful short-term low: -Monthly 100 Moving Average -0.786 Fibonacci retracement of the macro trend -42 level on the Monthly RSI I outlined these indicators in more detail in a previous post, which can be found here: Next let's discuss the other two trendlines I have drawn. Orange Trendline: Drawn from the 2022 wick low at $880, this trendline also marked the April 2025 bottom at $1,383. If ETH were to break below the legacy trendline in the future, it would not be surprising to see price form a wick-off bottom near this level. Green Trendline: While less significant, this trendline still offered interesting context. When extended from the 2022 wick low to the present, it acted as resistance for two weeks in April 2025 (with candle bodies closing below) before breaking higher and triggering a major rally. In the current market, this same trendline showed renewed confluence with the February 9 and February 16 wick lows. Even if ETH continues lower during this bear market, this is a time to start paying attention. Based on a combination of trend structure, momentum, and long-term valuation metrics, ETH appeared to be entering extreme value territory, making it a compelling area for long-term accumulation. Of course, this is not financial advice. I am only sharing my own ideas and observations. However, given the data presented, this is a trading idea worth monitoring closely. I will continue to update this analysis as conditions evolve.