DOGE - Double Top Rejection at $0.1070! RWA Plan vs BearishDogecoinCRYPTO:DOGEUSDofficialjackofalltrades What's up traders! 👋 Dogecoin just got REJECTED at a double top formation around $0.1050-$0.1070 after a brief 8% rally. We've got an interesting setup here - bullish short-term momentum from RWA tokenization news and a $468M short squeeze, but the double top rejection and descending trendlines are screaming BEARISH. Let me break down what's happening on the 45-minute chart and why the next move is CRITICAL. The Setup DOGE is trading at $0.09745 after getting rejected at the double top formation ($0.1050-$0.1070). Price reclaimed $0.10 briefly with an 8% rally, but the double top rejection has pushed us back down. We're now consolidating in the gray FVG zone at $0.0975-$0.0985 with descending trendlines overhead. The big question: Do we break down to $0.0700-$0.0750 support, or does the RWA tokenization narrative and record oversold RSI spark a reversal? Why This Setup Matters DOUBLE TOP REJECTION at $0.1050-$0.1070 (BEARISH pattern) Current price: $0.09745 (post-rejection decline) Descending trendlines = bearish structure BUT: RWA tokenization plan announced (Fractal Engine) RSI at RECORD OVERSOLD levels (lowest since launch) Multi-year descending wedge compression $468M short squeeze happened (but faded) Price briefly reclaimed $0.10 (+8% rally) Now down -8.17% after double top Higher timeframes: SUPER BEARISH Support zone: $0.0700-$0.0750 (green zone) Resistance: $0.1050-$0.1070 (red zone / double top) The News Context - February 26, 2026 This is where it gets INTERESTING - we've got bullish long-term fundamentals but bearish short-term technicals: Bullish catalysts: RWA TOKENIZATION PLAN announced (Feb 26) - Fractal Engine Timothy Stebbing (Dogecoin Foundation): Make DOGE "asset-backed currency" 2-3 year plan: Real-world asset tokenization denominated in DOGE Hotels, Businesses, Minerals, Oil & Gas tokenized on DOGE Start on sidechain, migrate to L1 via protocol upgrades BlackRock CEO Larry Fink: "Every asset can be tokenized" Tokenization = redesign of market plumbing (institutional theme) DOGE reclaimed $0.10 briefly (+8% rally to $0.1057) $468M SHORT SQUEEZE (shorts liquidated) Volume surge +115.17% to $1.81B RSI at RECORD OVERSOLD (lowest since launch) Multi-year descending wedge (compression = breakout potential) Weekly support $0.065-$0.08 holding Golden cross approaching vs Bitcoin (first since 2026 start) Crypto market rebound: Bitcoin +4.76%, Ethereum +8.75% Fear & Greed Index: 11 (Extreme Fear = contrarian signal) Coinbase Premium positive (U.S. buyers returning) BONK and SHIB also rallied (meme coin sector recovery) Bearish/Risk factors (DOMINANT): DOUBLE TOP REJECTION at $0.1050-$0.1070 (BEARISH pattern) Price down -8.17% to $0.0967 after rejection Descending trendlines = bearish structure HIGHER TIMEFRAMES: SUPER BEARISH Down 86.06% from all-time high Below 50-day ($0.173) and 200-day moving averages Long-term downtrend intact Rally faded quickly (8% gain → -8.17% decline) Short squeeze exhausted ($468M liquidated but no follow-through) Volume fell -15.11% after initial spike Lack of buy-side support (not panic selling, just no buyers) Broader market decline: Crypto -2.45%, Bitcoin -2.17% Risk-off sentiment (Extreme Fear at 11) Altcoin Season Index: 33 (not altcoin season) Key support at $0.095 at risk Break below $0.095 = drop to $0.090 likely RWA plan is 2-3 YEARS away (not immediate catalyst) Tokenization narrative speculative (no guarantee) Meme coin sector still weak overall Key Levels I'm Watching Resistance: $0.1050-$0.1070 - DOUBLE TOP / CRITICAL RESISTANCE / Red zone $0.1200 - Major resistance if breakout $0.1315 - Descending trendline resistance / Need to reclaim $0.2343 - Extended target (multi-year wedge breakout) Support: $0.09745 - Current price $0.0975-$0.0985 - FVG ZONE / Gray zone / Current consolidation $0.0950 - Immediate support / CRITICAL LEVEL $0.0920 - Secondary support $0.0900 - Psychological level $0.0800 - Weekly support zone upper $0.0700-$0.0750 - MAJOR SUPPORT ZONE / Green zone / Demand area $0.0650 - Multi-year support / Line in the sand $0.0600 - Extended support if breakdown Pattern Analysis - Double Top Rejection (BEARISH) The double top is a classic bearish reversal pattern that signals exhaustion: First top: $0.1050-$0.1070 (initial rejection) Second top: $0.1050-$0.1070 (confirmed rejection) Neckline: $0.0950 (CRITICAL support) Current: $0.09745 (below double top, testing neckline) Descending trendlines: Bearish structure overhead Target if breakdown: $0.0700-$0.0750 (measured move) Volume: Fell -15.11% after rally (lack of follow-through) This is a BEARISH pattern. The double top rejection at $0.1050-$0.1070 shows sellers are in control. The descending trendlines reinforce the bearish structure. If we break below $0.0950 neckline, the measured move targets $0.0700-$0.0750. Two Scenarios SCENARIO 1: Breakdown to $0.0700-$0.0750 (PRIMARY - 65% probability) Price breaks below $0.0950 neckline, targets $0.0700-$0.0750 support zone. Break below $0.0950 neckline with volume Descending trendlines keep pressure on Target 1: $0.0900 (psychological level) Target 2: $0.0800 (weekly support) Target 3: $0.0700-$0.0750 (major support / measured move) Triggers: Double top rejection confirmed (already happened) Descending trendlines intact (bearish structure) Higher timeframes super bearish Volume declining (lack of buyers) Broader crypto market weakness Bitcoin pullback (altcoin correlation) Altcoin Season Index at 33 (not altcoin season) RWA plan 2-3 years away (not immediate catalyst) Short squeeze exhausted (no follow-through) Risk-off sentiment (Extreme Fear) This aligns with: Double top rejection (bearish pattern) Descending trendlines (bearish structure) Higher timeframes super bearish Down 86% from all-time high Below 50-day and 200-day MAs Volume declining (no buyers) Rally faded quickly Broader market weakness SCENARIO 2: Oversold Bounce + RWA Narrative (ALTERNATE - 35% probability) RSI record oversold + RWA tokenization narrative sparks reversal, reclaim $0.10, target $0.1315. Defend $0.0950 neckline (hold support) RSI record oversold = contrarian buy signal RWA tokenization narrative gains traction Reclaim $0.10 psychological level Break above $0.1050-$0.1070 double top Target 1: $0.1200 (major resistance) Target 2: $0.1315 (descending trendline) Target 3: $0.2343 (multi-year wedge breakout) Triggers: RSI record oversold (lowest since launch = extreme) RWA tokenization plan gains institutional attention BlackRock tokenization narrative spreads Crypto market rebounds (Bitcoin to $70K+) Meme coin sector recovery (BONK, SHIB rally) Short squeeze resumes (more forced buying) Extreme Fear (11) = contrarian buy signal Multi-year wedge compression (breakout potential) Weekly support $0.065-$0.08 holds Golden cross vs Bitcoin (bullish signal) This would require a STRONG catalyst to overcome the bearish structure. The RWA tokenization plan is interesting long-term, but it's 2-3 years away. The RSI record oversold is a contrarian signal, but "oversold can stay oversold" in bear markets. RWA Tokenization Plan - Long-Term Bullish, But 2-3 Years Away What Was Announced (Feb 26, 2026): Timothy Stebbing (Dogecoin Foundation director): 12-month plan Goal: Make DOGE "asset-backed currency" in 2-3 years Fractal Engine: Dogecoin-denominated RWA rules engine Tokenize real assets: Hotels, Businesses, Minerals, Oil & Gas "If you want to trade, you do it with Dogecoin" Phased rollout: Start on sidechain, prove model, migrate to L1 Protocol upgrades needed for L1 migration Why This Matters: Gives DOGE utility beyond meme/speculation Aligns with institutional tokenization theme BlackRock CEO Larry Fink: "Every asset can be tokenized" Tokenization = redesign of market plumbing DOGE becomes medium of exchange for tokenized assets Demand from use case, not just speculation The Reality Check: This is a 2-3 YEAR plan (not immediate) Requires protocol upgrades (technical risk) Sidechain first (not L1 immediately) No guarantee of adoption (speculative) Competing with established platforms (Ethereum, Solana) Institutional adoption uncertain Execution risk (Dogecoin Foundation track record) Market Impact: BULLISH long-term, but NOT an immediate catalyst. The RWA plan is interesting and aligns with the institutional tokenization narrative (BlackRock, etc.). But it's 2-3 years away and requires significant execution. This is NOT enough to overcome the bearish technical structure right now. RSI Record Oversold - Contrarian Signal or Bear Market Reality? The Data: RSI hit RECORD OVERSOLD (lowest since launch) Well below typical "30" oversold threshold Rebounded to mid-30s on daily chart 7-day RSI: 31.52, 14-day RSI: 36.73 Still below neutral 50 line Why This Matters: Extreme oversold = potential capitulation Contrarian buy signal (markets bottom at extremes) RSI below 30 = selling exhaustion Record low = unprecedented selling pressure The Reality Check: "Oversold can stay oversold" in bear markets RSI below 50 = downtrend still intact Need RSI above 50 for confirmed reversal Extreme oversold ≠guaranteed bottom Price action matters more than indicators DOGE can stay oversold for extended periods Market Impact: MIXED. The record oversold RSI is a contrarian signal, but it's not enough on its own. In bear markets, assets can stay oversold for extended periods. We need RSI to climb above 50 AND price to break above descending trendlines for a confirmed reversal. Multi-Year Descending Wedge - Compression Breakout Potential The Pattern: Multi-year descending wedge (compression pattern) Lower highs and lower lows converging Apex approaching (compression = breakout imminent) Weekly support $0.065-$0.08 holding Descending resistance at $0.1315 Breakout target: $0.2343+ (measured move) Why This Matters: Descending wedge = bullish reversal pattern (typically) Compression = volatility contraction → expansion Apex approaching = decision point near Breakout above $0.1315 = bullish trend change Breakdown below $0.065 = deeper correction The Reality: Wedge is MULTI-YEAR (not short-term) Currently at lower end of wedge Need to break $0.1315 resistance for confirmation Double top at $0.1050-$0.1070 = failed breakout attempt Descending trendlines still intact No confirmed breakout yet Market Impact: NEUTRAL to BEARISH short-term. The multi-year wedge is interesting long-term, but we're currently at the lower end and the double top rejection shows we're not ready to break out yet. Need to reclaim $0.1315 for bullish confirmation. $468M Short Squeeze - Exhausted with No Follow-Through What Happened: $468M in short positions liquidated DOGE jumped +9.10% (strongest among top 10) Reclaimed $0.10 briefly (high $0.1057) Volume surge +115.17% to $1.81B Crypto market rebound: Bitcoin +4.76%, Ethereum +8.75% Why It Faded: Rally quickly reversed (-8.17% decline) Double top rejection at $0.1050-$0.1070 Volume fell -15.11% after spike Lack of buy-side support (not panic selling, just no buyers) Broader market turned negative (Bitcoin -2.17%) Short squeeze exhausted (forced buying done) No organic demand to sustain rally Market Impact: BEARISH. The short squeeze created a brief rally, but it faded quickly. The double top rejection and volume decline show there's no organic buying pressure. The forced buying from the squeeze is done, and now we're back to the bearish structure. Broader Crypto Market Context - Risk-Off Sentiment The Data: Crypto market cap -2.45% (after brief rebound) Bitcoin -2.17% (after +4.76% rally) Fear & Greed Index: 11 (Extreme Fear) Altcoin Season Index: 33 (not altcoin season) DOGE -8.17% (underperforming) High-beta altcoins getting hit hardest Why This Matters: Risk-off sentiment = capital fleeing altcoins DOGE is high-beta (amplifies moves) Extreme Fear = selling pressure Not altcoin season = DOGE struggles Bitcoin correlation = DOGE follows BTC down Market Impact: BEARISH. The broader crypto market is in risk-off mode. DOGE is a high-beta meme coin, so it underperforms in these conditions. The Extreme Fear reading and Altcoin Season Index at 33 show capital is NOT flowing to altcoins. My Game Plan Bearish scenario (PRIMARY - 65%): I'm leaning BEARISH here. The double top rejection at $0.1050-$0.1070 is a classic bearish pattern. The descending trendlines reinforce the bearish structure. Higher timeframes are SUPER BEARISH (down 86% from ATH, below 50-day and 200-day MAs). The rally from the short squeeze faded quickly with no follow-through. Volume is declining (no buyers). The broader crypto market is in risk-off mode (Extreme Fear, Altcoin Season Index 33). The RWA tokenization plan is interesting long-term, but it's 2-3 years away - not an immediate catalyst. If we break below $0.0950 neckline, I'm targeting $0.0700-$0.0750. Alternate scenario (35%): The RSI record oversold is a contrarian signal. If we defend $0.0950 and the RWA narrative gains traction, we could see a reversal. The multi-year wedge compression suggests a breakout is coming eventually. The Extreme Fear reading (11) is a contrarian buy signal. If crypto market rebounds (Bitcoin to $70K+) and meme coin sector recovers, DOGE could reclaim $0.10 and target $0.1315. But this requires a STRONG catalyst to overcome the bearish structure. Key level: $0.0950 NECKLINE. Break below = bearish to $0.0700-$0.0750. Hold = potential oversold bounce. The Bottom Line I'm BEARISH short-term (65%), but acknowledge the long-term RWA narrative (35%): Bearish factors (DOMINANT): Double top rejection at $0.1050-$0.1070 (bearish pattern) Descending trendlines (bearish structure) Higher timeframes super bearish Down 86% from all-time high Below 50-day and 200-day MAs Rally faded quickly (no follow-through) Volume declining (no buyers) Short squeeze exhausted Broader market risk-off (Extreme Fear) Altcoin Season Index 33 (not altcoin season) Bitcoin correlation (BTC down = DOGE down) Bullish factors (WEAK short-term, INTERESTING long-term): RWA tokenization plan (2-3 years away) RSI record oversold (contrarian signal) Multi-year wedge compression Weekly support $0.065-$0.08 holding Extreme Fear (11) = contrarian signal BlackRock tokenization narrative The $0.0950 neckline is KEY. Break below = bearish to $0.0700-$0.0750. Hold = potential oversold bounce to $0.10. The RWA tokenization plan is INTERESTING long-term, but it's 2-3 years away. The technical structure is BEARISH right now. The double top rejection and descending trendlines are in control. What do you think? Breakdown to $0.0700 or oversold bounce? Drop your take! 👇 If this helped, smash that 🚀 Boost button! Not financial advice. DYOR.