SinnSeed | #Nike (#NKE) in 2026 - idea - 26.02.2026NIKE, Inc. Class BBATS:NKESinnSeed🗓 SinnSeed | #Nike (#NKE) in 2026: the tariff window the market hasn’t priced in yet 🕯 As of February 26, 2026, NKE is trading around 64 USD (63.40–65.00), with a market cap of ~94–95 bn USD. 💼 Dividend yield is roughly 2.5% (0.41 USD per share; record date: March 2). At these levels, this is not a story about an “perfect company,” but about skewed expectations and a potentially meaningful re-rating. 📈 Where Nike stands today Nike is in the middle of a restructuring under CEO Elliott Hill. Management views FY2026 as a transition year: rapid actions to restore sales without permanent discounting, strengthen partner retail channels, refresh the product portfolio, and reduce the share of “aged” inventory. Improvements are starting to show, but the stock price reflects them only partially. 🛒 What looks strong North America (about 45% of revenue) is recovering noticeably. Partner (wholesale) sales in Q2 grew 8%. Inventory is coming down and the markdown mix looks healthier—an important sign Nike is gradually regaining control over pricing and demand. Product momentum in running, basketball, kids, and Jordan provides additional support. 📉 What continues to weigh The main weak spot is Greater China: a soft consumer, competition from Anta and Li-Ning, plus consumer nationalism. Nike’s direct digital sales continue to decline (NIKE Digital -14% in Q2). Gross margin in Q2 fell by 300 bps, with a meaningful portion driven by tariffs. 🗺 And importantly: Nike has already baked in about 1.5 bn USD of annual incremental tariff costs in FY2026. 🧮 Regional snapshot (Q2 FY2026, through November 30, 2025) Total revenue: 12.43 bn USD (+1% YoY reported). North America: 5.633 bn (+9%). EMEA (Europe, Middle East & Africa): 3.392 bn (+3% reported). Greater China: 1.423 bn (-17%). Asia Pacific & Latin America: 1.667 bn (-4%). North America and EMEA represent nearly three quarters of the business and remain resilient, while China and other regions continue to drag on the overall picture. ⏱ Core idea for 2026: tariffs may flip from a “headwind” into a “tailwind” After the US Supreme Court ruled the IEEPA-based tariff framework unlawful, the administration shifted to Section 122 (15%), set to run until July 24, 2026 without Congressional approval. The market reacted emotionally to the headline, but has not fully modeled what may matter more: partial or full removal by the deadline and possible refunds of previously paid duties. Wharton estimates the industry is discussing up to 175 bn USD in potential refunds; for Nike, that could mean the already-modeled 1.5 bn USD cost headwind turns into a one-off cash inflow and a margin boost. ⚖️ The price action supports the underpricing thesis: a short-term pop on the news followed by a pullback—classic “sell the fact,” without a deep scenario repricing. 🎯 NKE price scenarios by end-2026 (from ~64 USD) 🛫 Base case: 75–78 USD (+17–22%). Restructuring stays on track; tariff pressure eases partially. Probability ~55%. 🛫 Bull case: 85–92 USD (+33–44%). Section 122 is removed/neutralized by July and duty refunds reach 50–70% of the modeled 1.5 bn USD. Probability ~35%. 🛫 Bear case: 55–60 USD (-6–14%). Shift to harsher tariff mechanisms plus further deterioration in China. Probability ~10%. ✍️ My midpoint target: 82–85 USD by December 2026 (+28–33%). 💵 Why Nike could outperform peers Because Nike’s tariff factor is among the largest in absolute dollars, import dependence is high, and margin expectations are already depressed. If the tariff window starts to close, the impact on earnings and valuation could be disproportionately strong. 🗓 Watchlist calendar Over the next 2–4 weeks: track news on duty refunds and importer lawsuits. March 19: Q3 earnings (key question: does North America strength persist?). April–July: peak catalyst window ahead of the July 24 deadline. ⚠️ Key risks A shift to a tougher tariff framework, no guarantee of full refunds due to legal complexity, and prolonged weakness in China slowing margin recovery. 💡 Bottom line Nike in 2026 is one of the more interesting retail setups precisely because of the tariff window. The market is still reacting cautiously—and that can be the opportunity. Building a position on pullbacks below 62 USD makes sense, and a move above 80 USD looks achievable if the tariff narrative turns more favorable into July. NFA | DYOR With respect to everyone, Yours, 🫡 #SinnSeed