JOSHUA WALKER2026年2月27日 Pool photo by Kiyoshi OtaEver since its defeat in World War II, Japan’s place in the world has been shaped by a deliberate policy of restraint.自二战战败以来，日本在世界上的定位一直由一项刻意奉行的克制政策所塑造。Under its pacifist postwar Constitution, Japan has for decades kept its military budget modest, sheltered under the U.S. security umbrella, and has avoided directly provoking an increasingly assertive China. Japan’s people, scarred by the trauma of World War II, supported that approach.根据战后和平宪法，日本数十年来一直维持有限的军事预算，置身于美国的安全保护伞之下，并避免直接挑衅日益强硬的中国。饱受二战创伤的日本民众也支持这一路线。But this month’s landslide electoral victory by the hard-line Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi — who openly advocates a tougher approach to China and a more robust Japanese military — suggests that era may be ending. The implications for the region could be profound.但本月，强硬派首相高市早苗以压倒性优势赢得大选——她公开主张对中国采取更强硬立场、建设更强大的日本军事力量——这表明这个时代或许即将终结。这对地区局势可能产生深远影响。Caught between a more aggressive China and a less predictable United States, the realization has dawned in Japan that caution is no longer enough to guarantee its security. If this trajectory continues, it is likely to result in a U.S. ally that is more assertive, militarily capable — and central to deterring China. It is crucial that the United States encourages this evolution while ensuring that it strengthens, rather than weakens, regional stability.夹在日益咄咄逼人的中国与更难预测的美国之间，日本逐渐意识到，仅靠谨慎已不足以保障自身安全。如果这一趋势持续，日本这一美国盟友很可能变得更加强势、更具军事能力，并成为威慑中国的核心力量。美国必须鼓励这一转变，同时确保其加强而非削弱地区稳定，这一点至关重要。The changing Japanese mind-set did not begin with Ms. Takaichi.日本心态的转变并非始于高市早苗。It has been years in the making, as the global landscape has shifted, particularly with China’s rise as an assertive military power. China increasingly sends ships into Japan-administered islands in the East China Sea and carries out threatening military maneuvers around Taiwan. Chinese expansionism or a conflict in the region would endanger the sea lanes and supply chains upon which Japan’s trade-dependent economy relies.这一转变已酝酿多年，全球格局已经变化、尤其是中国已经崛起为强势军事大国。中国越来越频繁地派遣船只进入日本管辖的东海岛屿附近，并在台湾周边开展具有威胁性的军事演习。中国的扩张主义或该地区暴发冲突将危及依赖贸易的日本经济所仰仗的航道与供应链。With these threats in mind, Japan, under former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, reinterpreted its Constitution in the mid 2010s to broaden the circumstances under which it could use military force. Mr. Abe also created a National Security Council to strengthen decision-making on military matters and increased defense ties across the Indo-Pacific region. His successors, especially Fumio Kishida, continued this arc, approving the largest defense buildup in the postwar era and endorsing Japan’s ability to strike back if attacked — a shift once considered politically unthinkable.出于对这些威胁的考量，日本在前首相安倍晋三的领导下，于2010年代中期重新解释宪法，扩大了行使武力的适用范围。安倍还设立了国家安全保障会议，强化军事决策机制，并加强与印太地区各国的防务合作。他的继任者，尤其是岸田文雄，延续了这一轨迹，批准了战后规模最大的防务扩张，并支持发展日本遭受攻击时的反击能力——这一转变在政治上曾被认为不可想象。Ms. Takaichi has indicated a willingness to take things even further.高市早苗已表示愿意推进这一进程。In November, she implied that Japan could intervene militarily if China attacked Taiwan, the self-governing island democracy that Beijing claims as its territory. It was one of the clearest public signals by a Japanese leader in years that the country could come to Taiwan’s aid, and Beijing responded angrily with punitive economic measures.去年11月，她暗示，如果中国攻击北京宣称拥有主权的自治民主地区台湾，日本可能进行军事干预。这是多年来日本领导人最明确的公开信号之一，表明日本可能援助台湾。北京愤怒回应，采取了惩罚性经济措施。Japanese voters were not intimidated, handing Ms. Takaichi and the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party a supermajority of two-thirds of the seats in the 465-member lower house of Parliament earlier this month — the first political party to achieve that in the postwar era. That represents a historic mandate in a country whose prime ministers typically govern with narrow margins and must make deep compromises to their agenda to appease party or coalition factions.日本选民并未因此退缩。本月早些时候，高市早苗及长期执政的自民党在选举中以三分之二的席位优势赢得465个议席中的绝对多数——这是战后日本首次有政党实现这一成绩。在日本，首相通常仅以微弱优势执政，必须为安抚党派或联盟派系而大幅妥协议程，此次胜选堪称历史性的政治授权。Ms. Takaichi may now have the political leverage needed to succeed where Mr. Abe — her mentor — fell short: revising Japan’s Constitution to loosen constraints on its military. Article 9 of the Constitution renounces war and forbids maintaining a “war potential.” Japan has, in fact, built highly capable Self-Defense Forces over the decades, but Article 9 long served as a political guardrail, sustaining informal limits on military spending, offensive capabilities and overseas deployments.高市早苗如今可能拥有所需的政治筹码，完成其导师安倍晋三未能实现的目标：修改宪法，放宽对军队的限制。宪法第九条规定放弃战争，禁止维持“战争潜力”。事实上，日本数十年来已建成能力极强的自卫队，但第九条长期充当政治护栏，对军费、进攻能力和海外部署维持着非正式的限制。Revising the Constitution wouldn’t mean an overnight change. But the eventual consequences could be far-reaching — formally recognizing a more conventional role for the military and clearing the way for higher spending and expanded operations beyond Japan’s shores.修宪并不意味着一夜之间发生剧变。但其最终影响可能深远：这将正式承认军队更常规的角色，为增加军费和日本扩大海外行动扫清障碍。I’ve spent years talking to policymakers in Japan, where revision of Article 9 was always discussed cautiously as a distant, future aspiration. Now, in the wake of Ms. Takaichi’s election win, there is a different feeling. In meetings across Tokyo that I took part in last week, Liberal Democratic Party lawmakers and cabinet officials spoke about constitutional revision as a plausible near-term objective. Japanese television commentators who once treated the topic as an abstraction now debate timelines.多年来，我一直在与日本政策制定者交流，修改第九条在过去总是被谨慎地当作遥远的未来目标。如今，在高市早苗胜选后，气氛已然不同。我于上周在东京参加的多场会议中，自民党议员与内阁官员都将修宪视为短期内可能实现的目标。曾经将这一议题当作抽象概念的日本电视评论员如今开始讨论时间表。Ms. Takaichi still must tread carefully, given lingering political sensitivity over the issue. Her room for maneuver could narrow further if her expansionist economic plans add to rising inflation. But the tone in Tokyo has clearly shifted.鉴于该议题仍存在政治敏感性，高市早苗仍须谨慎行事。如果她扩张性的经济计划会加剧通胀，她的操作空间可能进一步收窄。但东京的基调显然已经转变。A normalized Japanese defense posture would force Beijing to reassess its behavior in the region, including its coercive activities aimed at Taiwan. Up to now, China has felt free to increasingly flex its muscles, knowing that one of America’s closest allies — and one of the world’s richest economies and most advanced democracies — was constitutionally prevented from exercising its full military potential.日本国防态势正常化将迫使北京重新评估自身在该地区的行为，包括针对台湾的胁迫活动。迄今为止，中国之所以能够肆无忌惮地不断展示实力，是因为它知道，美国最亲密的盟友之一、全球最富裕的经济体与最先进的民主国家之一，受宪法限制而无法充分发挥军事潜力。No one in Asia is eager for an arms race, and a more militarily capable Japan will inevitably stir painful memories in places that suffered under Japanese wartime occupation, particularly China and the Korean Peninsula. But today’s strategic choices must be governed by present geopolitical realities.亚洲没有人渴望军备竞赛，而一个军事能力更强的日本不可避免地会在战时遭日本占领的地区唤起痛苦的记忆，尤其是在中国和朝鲜半岛。但当今的战略选择必须立足当前地缘政治现实。A constrained Japan may have been in America’s interest in the decades following World War II, but not anymore. A Japan that is willing to share more of the responsibility and cost of ensuring security in its neighborhood is likely to be welcomed by President Trump, who has pushed for U.S. allies to do just that. This is especially important at a time when American power is stretched by threats to peace around the globe and the nation is politically divided. Washington should embrace the potential for greater Japanese strategic autonomy as a sign of an alliance adapting to modern realities.二战后几十年里，一个受约束的日本或许符合美国利益，但如今已不再如此。一个愿意分担更多地区安全责任与成本的日本很可能受到特朗普总统欢迎，他一直在推动美国盟友这样做。在美国实力因全球和平威胁而分散、国内政治分裂之际，这一点尤为重要。华盛顿应将日本提升战略自主性的可能性视为同盟适应当下现实的信号。A stronger Japan is not a cure-all. If accompanied by nationalist rhetoric or provocative actions, it could unsettle the region rather than steady it. The aim should instead be to project quiet, credible strength. This will require restraint in Tokyo, discipline in Washington, and close, careful coordination between the two allies.一个更强大的日本并非万能良药。如果伴随民族主义言论或挑衅行为，它可能扰乱而非稳定地区局势。目标应是展现低调而可信的实力。这需要东京保持克制、华盛顿保持自律，以及两国盟友之间紧密审慎的协调。An early chance to display unity will come in March, when Ms. Takaichi is expected to make her first visit to the White House for talks with Mr. Trump. That trip will come ahead of a planned visit to China by Mr. Trump later in the month. The two leaders already have hit it off — Mr. Trump offered his “total endorsement” of Ms. Takaichi before her Feb. 8 snap election win — and a strong show of solidarity in Washington should be used to make clear to Beijing the emerging new realities.最近的一个展现团结的机会将在3月到来，届时高市早苗预计将首次访问白宫与特朗普会谈。此行将早于特朗普当月晚些时候计划中的访华行程。两国领导人已建立良好关系——特朗普在2月8日日本提前大选前便对高市早苗表示“全力支持”。双方应在华盛顿展现强劲团结姿态，向北京传递一个正在形成的新现实。The question is not whether Japan will act more like the power it already is — global changes are already pushing it in that direction — it is how that momentous change is managed in Tokyo, Washington and across the region.问题不在于日本是否会更像它已然成为的大国那样行事——全球变化已在推动它朝此方向发展——而在于东京、华盛顿及整个地区如何管控这一重大转变。Joshua W. Walker是纽约日本协会(Japan Society)的理事长，也是《Alliance at a Crossroads》一书的作者，该书探讨了美日关系的历史。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。