JPYUSD 4H Analysis: Price Holding Demand After BreakdownJAPANESE YEN / U.S. DOLLARFX_IDC:JPYUSDHenrybillionJPYUSD 4H Analysis: Price Holding Demand After Breakdown, Watch 0.00639 Support for a Bounce Toward 0.00648–0.00652 JPYUSD on the 4H chart is coming out of a clear distribution-to-breakdown sequence. Price previously ranged inside a marked supply box near the highs, then broke down aggressively and is now stabilizing above a key demand band around 0.00639–0.00640. Current price is roughly 0.006413, sitting just above support, which makes this a classic “decision area” where buyers may attempt a base-and-bounce, or sellers may press for continuation lower. Below is a clean, execution-ready map using market structure, Fibonacci zones, EMA and RSI confirmation, and the most important support/resistance levels. Market Structure (4H) Phase 1: Strong push up into a sideways range (the highlighted box), signaling distribution and reduced upside momentum. Phase 2: Breakdown from the range, forming a bearish impulse leg with lower highs/lower lows. Phase 3 (now): Price is compressing near demand, suggesting either accumulation for a corrective bounce or a pause before continuation down. Bias: short-term corrective bounce is possible while support holds, but the broader structure remains bearish until the market reclaims the previous breakdown levels. Key Resistance Levels 0.00644–0.00645 First overhead resistance and a common retest zone. Bulls need acceptance above this area to build a higher-high on 4H. 0.00648–0.00649 Mid resistance and the next target if the bounce develops. This aligns with the prior reaction highs after the breakdown. 0.00651–0.00654 Major supply zone from the previous range. Expect strong selling pressure here unless momentum is clearly bullish. Key Support Levels (Demand) 0.00639–0.00640 Primary demand band (the purple zone). This is the key line that keeps the “bounce scenario” alive. 0.00636–0.00637 Next support if demand fails. If price closes below 0.00639 on 4H, this becomes the first downside objective. 0.00634–0.00635 Deeper support and likely liquidity area if sellers fully regain control. Fibonacci Roadmap (Bounce vs Continuation) Pull Fibonacci from the swing high near 0.00648–0.00649 down to the recent low around 0.00639–0.00640: A healthy corrective bounce often retraces to 0.382–0.5, which typically maps into 0.00644–0.00645. A stronger bounce can extend to 0.618, often aligning with 0.00648–0.00649. If price cannot even reclaim 0.382–0.5, it is usually a weak bounce and sellers often re-enter. This is a clean way to avoid guessing whether the bounce has real strength. EMA + RSI Confirmation (High-Probability Filters) EMA: For a bounce to be tradable, price should reclaim EMA20 on 4H and begin closing above it. If EMA20 remains below EMA50 and price keeps rejecting EMA20, treat rallies as sell-the-rip opportunities. RSI: In bearish structures, RSI often fails near 50 during bounces. If RSI holds above 45–50 and begins trending upward, the corrective bounce has better odds. If RSI stays below 40, continuation down is more likely. Trading Plans (Entries, Stops, Targets) Plan A: Buy the Demand Zone (Bounce Setup) Trigger: Price taps 0.00639–0.00640 and prints bullish rejection (long lower wick, bullish engulfing, or a break of micro downtrend). Execution: Entry: after confirmation inside/above 0.00639–0.00640 Stop: below 0.00638 (or below the reversal candle low) Target 1: 0.00644–0.00645 Target 2: 0.00648–0.00649 Extension: 0.00651–0.00652 if momentum is strong and structure flips to higher highs This is a corrective trade. Take profits into resistance rather than expecting a full trend reversal. Plan B: Breakout Continuation Buy Above 0.00645 Trigger: A 4H close above 0.00645, followed by a hold/retest as support. Execution: Entry: confirmed breakout above 0.00645 Stop: below 0.00643 Target: 0.00648–0.00649, then 0.00651–0.00652 Plan C: Breakdown Sell If 0.00639 Fails (Bearish Continuation) Trigger: A 4H close below 0.00639, then a failed retest of 0.00639–0.00640. Execution: Entry: sell the failed retest Stop: above 0.00641–0.00642 Target 1: 0.00636–0.00637 Target 2: 0.00634–0.00635 What Would Invalidate the Bounce Idea A sustained 4H close below 0.00639, especially if followed by acceptance below the purple demand zone. Repeated rejection at 0.00644–0.00645 with weak candles and RSI staying under 45. If that happens, the market is likely continuing the bearish leg rather than building a base. Summary JPYUSD 4H is sitting on a critical demand band at 0.00639–0.00640 after a clean breakdown. While the broader structure remains bearish, a corrective bounce is very possible if this support holds, with targets at 0.00645 and 0.00648–0.00649. If demand breaks, continuation lower opens toward 0.00636 and 0.00634.