AUDJPY: Post-Event Continuation ScenarioAustralian Dollar vs Japanese YenPEPPERSTONE:AUDJPYGoldvalleyCap1. Regime Context Primary regime: Risk Expansion Confidence: High Transmission: Intact That environment favors: Carry trades JPY weakness AUD support under stable risk conditions So structurally, AUD/JPY is aligned with regime. However, regime permission does not override event proximity. 2. Event Cluster Risk Within 24 hours: AUD CPI Trimmed Mean Construction data RBA communication BOJ CPI US political headline risk This is not background noise. This is a binary volatility window specifically for AUD and JPY. That immediately shifts execution rules: Pre-release expansion trades are lower quality. Breakout chasing becomes gambling. Full-size positioning is unjustified before confirmation. 3. What This Means for AUD/JPY Macro alignment: Valid Yield backdrop: Supportive Risk regime: Supportive But event risk: High. Therefore: This is not a pre-CPI breakout trade. This is a post-CPI confirmation trade. 4. What Confirmation Actually Means After CPI release, the desk must see: Initial reaction Yield confirmation Australian front-end yields reacting relative to US No immediate full fade of the first move Cross-asset consistency Equities stable No aggressive JPY bid If CPI supports AUD and: AUD/JPY breaks 110.60 Holds above it Pullbacks remain shallow Then the long becomes high quality. If CPI spikes AUD and the move fully fades within the first rotation, the structure is invalid. 5. Structure Trigger (Post-Event Only) Long becomes actionable only if: Clear hourly close above resistance Acceptance above prior supply No aggressive reversal candle Yield gate still aligned at that moment Invalidation remains: Break below 109.20 Broad JPY strength Yield shift against AUD 6. Risk Discipline Adjustment Before CPI: No breakout chasing Reduced size if involved No adding into spike After CPI: Normal size only if: Regime still intact Yield transmission clean No fade behavior If event reaction is mixed, stand down. 7. The Real Edge Here The edge is not predicting CPI. The edge is trading the flow that survives CPI. If Risk Expansion is real, AUD/JPY should extend after confirmation. If it cannot extend in a supportive regime after a volatility window, that is information. Bottom Line AUD/JPY is structurally aligned with the dominant regime. But inside a high-impact AUD event cluster, this is a confirmation trade, not an anticipation trade. Capital preservation first. Continuation second. GoldvalleyCap - Citibag Trading Desk - QuantGPT