USDCAD H4 Stabilize After Bearish Phase as Macro Flows RebalanceUSD/CADOANDA:USDCADWendy_GraceMarket Context 🌎 USDCAD enters the new week transitioning out of a clearly defined bearish phase into a higher-timeframe balancing environment on H4. The prior downside move has already fulfilled its primary objective — clearing liquidity and forcing repositioning — before price began stabilizing. On the macro side, the pair is being shaped by diverging pressures. The USD remains supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive stance longer than previously priced, especially as inflation and labor data remain firm. In contrast, CAD continues to track oil price sensitivity and global growth expectations, both of which have recently lacked clear direction. This combination limits directional conviction and favors range development over trend expansion. Current Observation Structurally, the market has already printed a ChoCH followed by a limited BOS, signaling that downside control has weakened, but upside momentum remains conditional. Recent advances lack strong displacement, while pullbacks have been corrective rather than impulsive. This behavior suggests positioning and inventory adjustment, not aggressive accumulation or distribution. Price is currently rotating within a well-defined H4 range, where both sides are actively engaging rather than yielding control. In short, the market has shifted from trend execution to price negotiation. Key Zones 🎯 Sell-side area (1.3700 – 1.3725): This zone aligns with the premium side of the current range and previous reaction highs. A return into this area without expansion would likely reflect sell-side engagement and risk reduction, not immediate continuation. Buy-side reaction area (1.3600 – 1.3580): Positioned at the discount of the range, this zone has already shown buyer responsiveness. Holding here supports the current balanced structure, while failure would reopen the path toward prior bearish flow. Forward Awareness Experienced traders are watching acceptance at the range boundaries, not price action in the middle. Only a sustained reaction outside of balance will provide meaningful directional clarity. Until then, USDCAD remains a position-driven market, guided more by macro alignment and liquidity behavior than by technical projection. Let price confirm intent. Structure will follow.