FUNDAMENTALOVERVIEWThe S&P 500 reboundedfrom the monthly lows as risk sentiment improved. There was no real catalystfor the move as the market continues to trade in a range amid uncertainty onthe macro and geopolitical fronts. The short-term uncertaintycaused by the US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs might have weighed on themarket, but in the bigger picture it didn’t change much as Trump quicklyreimposed new tariffs using different laws. The new levies reduce the effectiveaverage tariff rate, which could be a positive at the margin. In terms of Fed interestrates path, the market is still pricing 54 bps of easing by year-end whichcould be at risk of a hawkish repricing on further improvement in the US labourmarket data. In fact, Fed’s Waller mentioned that he might want to hold ratessteady if we see a repeat of the strong January’s NFP report. Therefore, nextFriday is going to be key as good data could weigh on the market in theshort-term on a hawkish repricing. Lastly, we have the US-Iranmilitary escalation risk. This is one of the biggest risks because if amilitary conflict were to break out, we would see oil prices skyrocket. Thiswould be a negative shock for the global economy and lead to stagflation risks.The first reaction in the markets would be strong risk aversion. We wouldhighly likely see a selloff in the stock market as future growth expectationswould turn negative.To sum up, there are lotsof downside risks at the moment with little reasons for a rally into newall-time highs. Nonetheless, the macro backdrop remains positive given theeasing inflation and improving labour market, but that could change quickly, sotraders will need to be careful.S&P 500TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOnthe daily chart, we can see thatthe S&P 500 rebounded from the monthlylows and it’s approaching the all-time highs. If the price gets there, we canexpect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the record highs, toposition for a drop back into the 6,760 support. The buyers, on the other hand,will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets intonew record highs.S&P 500TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOnthe 4 hour chart, we have astrong support zone around the 6,930 level. If we get a pullback, we can expectthe buyers to step in around the support with a defined risk below it to keeppushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a breaklower to pile back in and target the 6,760 support. S&P 500 TECHNICALANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’snot much we can add here as the buyers will have a better risk to reward setuparound the support, while the sellers will need a break lower to open the doorfor a drop into the 6,760 support. The red lines define the average daily range for today.UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we have the third round of US-Iran talks and the US Jobless Claimsdata. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US PPI report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.