India's captain Suryakumar Yadav, left, smiles as he and Pakistan's captain Salman Ali Agha walk out onto the field for the T20 World Cup cricket match between India and Pakistan in Colombo, Sri Lanka, Sunday, Feb. 15, 2026. (AP Photo/Eranga Jayawardena)There are few certainties in an ICC event, but one that usually holds true is this: somewhere near the end, India and Pakistan are still in the mix. World Cups often build toward that familiar tension – the Asian giants hovering around the knockouts, shaping the narrative of the competition.This time, however, the script threatens to flip.As the Super 8 stage of this T20 World Cup reaches a decisive stretch, both India and Pakistan are staring at scenarios where they could miss the semifinals – a rare possibility that adds an unusual edge to the final round of matches.India enter their clash against Zimbabwe in Chennai on Thursday knowing that the margin for error has all but vanished. After their opening setback in the Super 8 stage against South Africa at Ahmedabad, the equation is simple on paper but complicated in reality: win – and win convincingly. Net run rate and other results in the group could still come into play, meaning India not only need victories but also performances strong enough to keep them ahead in a tightly-contested table.Pakistan’s situation is no less delicate. A rain-abandoned start to their Super 8 campaign against New Zealand in Colombo followed by defeat to England by two wickets in Kandy on Tuesday has left them needing a win in their final match against Sri Lanka in Kandy on Saturday while hoping results elsewhere fall in their favour. In a short stage like this, a single washout or loss can distort the table quickly – and Pakistan are now living that reality.It is unusual territory for two teams that have built much of their ICC tournament legacy in going deep in competitions. Yet tournaments like these occasionally produce weeks where even the biggest names find themselves chasing the format rather than dictating it.Also Read | Can Pakistan qualify for the T20 World Cup semifinals after their loss to England? Explaining the scenariosThe last time neither India nor Pakistan were in a semifinal of a global event was at the 2007 ODI World Cup in West Indies, where both sides were knocked out in the league-phase. India suffered a humbling defeat to Bangladesh in Trinidad while Pakistan were shocked by Ireland in Jamaica, the defeats leading to their eventual ouster.Now, more than a decade and a half later, another such chapter could be written. If results over the next few days don’t go their way, the semifinal lineup of this T20 World Cup might unfold without either of its most followed teams – something global tournaments rarely see and broadcasters rarely plan for.Story continues below this adFor now, though, the door remains open. Just barely. And that makes the next matches in Chennai, Kandy and elsewhere far more than routine games – they could end up reshaping the story of this tournament.Based in Mumbai, Shankar Narayan has over five years of experience and his reporting has ranged from the Ranji Trophy to ICC World Cups, and he writes extensively on women’s cricket. ... Read MoreStay updated with the latest sports news across Cricket, Football, Chess, and more. Catch all the action with real-time live cricket score updates and in-depth coverage of ongoing matches.© The Indian Express Pvt Ltd