USD Ascending Triangle into March - DXY StrategyU.S. Dollar Currency IndexTVC:DXYFOREXcomAfter a decisive sell-off in late January it's been a month of recovery in the DXY basket in February. The currency holds an ascending triangle formation which is a bullish breakout formation, but for that to fill in it's going to need some help from a market that's been in somewhat of a pensive spot at fresh highs of late. In DXY - it's the 97.94 Fibonacci level that's so far capped the highs. This price helped to prod a bounce back in April of last year, and then as the USD ranged for the second-half of last year, it served as both resistance and then support. That price has held the highs for three of the past four weeks and for five of the past seven days, but if the formation is going to break out, it's likely going to need some run in USD/JPY. The challenge there is that it seems both Japan and the US would prefer USD/JPY below the 160.00 level. It was the comment from Finance Minister Katayama in January where she spoke of how both she and Scott Bessent agreed on the matter, alluding to the possibility of some form of cooperation. Lo and behold less than a week later at the BoJ meeting when USD/JPY broke down there was widespread accusations that it was the US who intervened, although Bessent denied that report on the following Wednesday just a couple hours ahead of the FOMC meeting. Nonetheless, the 160.00 level remains an imposing spot for USD/JPY and as we get closer, the perceived risk-reward shifts as the possibility of intervention leading to a stop run can make the long side less and less attractive. For USD-weakness, there's still a case to be made for EUR/USD and perhaps GBP/USD. - js