Australia Q4 capex beats expectations as renewable investment lifts outlook

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Australian business investment edges higher as renewables drive capex upgrade.Summary:Q4 private capex +0.4% q/q (0% exp), prior +6.4 (data post here)Annual growth accelerated to +7.8% y/y.Buildings & structures +2.3%; equipment -1.7%.Non-mining investment at record high in real terms.2025/26 capex estimate lifted to A$199.3bn (+4.3% revision).First 2026/27 estimate A$158.4bn (~A$160bn pipeline).Strength concentrated in renewables and data centres.Australian private capital expenditure edged higher in the December quarter, delivering a modest upside surprise and reinforcing the resilience of business investment heading into 2026.Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed capex rose 0.4% q/q in Q4 2025, beating expectations for a flat outcome following a sharp 6.4% surge in Q3. Annual growth lifted to 7.8%, with total quarterly spending reaching A$49.3bn, the strongest level since early 2015.The composition of spending was constructive. Investment in buildings and structures rose 2.3%, supported by strength in renewable energy projects, including battery, wind and solar developments. In contrast, plant and machinery investment fell 1.7%, retracing part of the prior quarter’s data-centre-driven surge. Despite the pullback, equipment spending remains up 9.2% across the second half of 2025.Importantly, non-mining investment has now reached a record high in real terms, a positive signal not only for Q4 GDP but also for Australia’s medium-term productivity outlook.Forward indicators were encouraging. Firms upgraded their expected spending for 2025/26 to A$199.3bn, a 4.3% increase on the previous estimate of A$191.3bn. The first estimate for 2026/27 came in at A$158.4bn, suggesting roughly A$160bn in the pipeline.The combination of renewable infrastructure expansion and ongoing digital investment underscores a structural shift in capital allocation across the economy. While quarterly volatility remains evident, the broader trend in private investment appears firm.For policymakers, the data point to sustained domestic demand momentum even as broader economic growth moderates. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.