Gold: Not a Crash, Just a Technical Shakeout

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Gold: Not a Crash, Just a Technical ShakeoutGoldOANDA:XAUUSDMillieee_Hello everyone, In the latest session, gold dropped quite sharply from the 5,250 area down to around 5,140–5,160 in a short period of time. The candle definitely looked scary and may have caught many traders off guard. However, if we calmly step back and look at the overall structure, this move is not necessarily something negative. In my view, this is mainly a profit-taking move after a strong prior rally. When price climbs steadily within an ascending channel, a pullback to release pressure is completely normal. At the same time, the USD ticked slightly higher and U.S. equities rallied strongly, which temporarily shifted capital away from gold and into risk assets. The key level to watch is 5,080–5,100, which is still holding. This is a strong support zone (lower boundary of the channel + 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci retracement). As long as price remains above this area, I lean more toward a technical correction rather than a trend reversal. This week, the market is focused on inflation data and Fed speeches. If the numbers show easing inflation pressure, the USD could weaken, giving gold room to rebound more strongly. In addition, geopolitical risks and ongoing trade tensions continue to provide underlying support for gold’s longer-term trend. My preferred scenario: Hold above 5,080–5,100 → consolidate → retest 5,300 → potentially extend toward 5,500. Only if we see a strong H4 close below 5,050 would I start to turn more cautious. For now, this looks more like a shakeout before the market potentially moves higher.