BTC - How to Predict the Future Bitcoin FuturesCME_DL:BTC1!VIAQUANTMost people are screaming the bull market has begun. It is amazing how quickly sentiment shifts at the most important levels in the trend. What if I told you this move was expected? What if I told you I had this exact move charted since December of 2025? Let me show you, and give you a lesson on how to predict the future. Of course, nobody can predict the future exactly and I do not have a crystal ball, just the price action I study in front of me. However, it is amazing how close you can get to predicting true bottoms and tops in this market. Predicting The Future Let's go back to December 22, 2025. Bitcoin is trading at $89,550 and I made a post that may one day make it into the history books depending on how the remainder of this cycle plays out. It was titled "BTC - Expected Next Moves": In that post I laid out my prediction for how the 2026 bear market was likely to play out. I stated, "Bitcoin would start by rebounding toward $98,000 to $102,000 to create its next lower high". 23 days later, Bitcoin created its next lower high at exactly $98,000. I then said if that occurred, the black arrows could give us a roadmap of what price was likely to do throughout the 2026 bear market. My prediction following the $98,000 top was that Bitcoin would drop to $69,000. Granted it dropped slightly lower to $60,000, but what comes next is remarkable. After that drop, price would then rebound to $82,000 before forming the next macro lower high. This is exactly where price finds itself today, right at the 0.382 Fibonacci of the macro trend. Will history once again solidify this TradingView idea in the trading hall of fame with price getting rejected here and starting its next bear market leg toward the 0.618? Please leave your thoughts below. Future Lower Highs The next prediction came on February 5, 2026 as the flash crash was occurring, in an idea I titled "BTC - All Fibonacci + Key Trendlines to Watch": In that idea I had two ranges outlined in red boxes showing where the potential future lower high levels were likely to form. The first box ranged from $80,550 to $83,900 and the second as high as $89,300. At the time I did not know how strong the bounce would be, only that BTC would see a substantial rally. Now that I am seeing early signs of weakness around the $82,000 level, it was important to resurface these ideas so you can cut through the noise and understand the macro trend and how these levels were outlined months ago when BTC was still trading in the $60,000s. My Main Upside Target On March 5th, 2026 I outlined all three upside targets where price was likely to form significant tops, in an idea I titled "BTC - Bullish Retest + Breakout Targets (Bullish Scenario)": In that idea I labeled the Main Target as $82,200 to $85,300. I have updated this idea many times as price reached each significant level: Price just hit a high around $82,800 and has seen the start of a strong rejection from that Main Target zone so far. It is entirely possible price still pushes slightly higher toward the upper end of the zone, but today's price action has been a clean rejection and tomorrow's close will give us the confirmation we need. Predicting the Future Again — The CME Chart Looking at the CME chart, BTC1! just printed a doji. Dojis in uptrends typically signal indecision and often mark the beginning of a reversal. I have outlined with orange flags the other four recent instances where price created a doji on the CME after an uptrend, and every single one was followed by a red day. Two of those three were the beginning of major crashes. The one on January 28th led to a 33% crash and the one on March 17th led to a 13% crash. The one that printed on April 1st still led to a 4% decline the next day before the uptrend resumed. So will tomorrow just be a red day before price continues higher toward the upper region, or is this the start of the next major bear market drop? Two More Reasons to Be Cautious First, BTC has just filled its CME gap to the upside, which I outlined in detail here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTC1!/kfeexvVd-BTC-Filling-CME-Gap/ Second and perhaps most importantly, the 200 Moving Average. In any financial instrument the 200 MA acts as the primary long term benchmark for identifying market trends: The last time Bitcoin was testing the 200 MA was in November 2025. Price then broke below it, retested it with a bearish retest, and the bear market began. Fast forward 176 days later to the present and Bitcoin has just tested it again as resistance. I have the 200 EMA outlined in dark blue and the 200 SMA in light blue. The daily RSI has also closed right around the 70 level, or overbought conditions, which adds further reason to expect a decline from here. Only time will tell if these predictions make it into the trading hall of fame once again. Either way I hope this analysis provides a solid and grounded perspective on the current Bitcoin levels. I know there is a lot of hype and FOMO in the community right now, which is exactly why I urge you to stay cautious and stay vigilant. This was a longer post today, but thank you so much for reading! I hope this brought you some value.