ASX 200: Markets Price Peace in the Middle East… AgainAustralia 200 CFDFOREXCOM:AUS200FOREXcomLike Bill Murray in Groundhog Day, I find myself sitting here on a cold morning in Australia talking about the end to the Iran war, or at least speculation it’s about to happen. Excuse my cynicism, but this is not the first time markets have priced an end to the conflict. I don’t know exactly how many times, but as a rough guess I’ve probably run out of fingers to count. Which gets me to the trade idea involving my home equity market, the ASX 200. It’s jackknifed higher on the war supposedly ending again, bouncing from the bottom of its prevailing sideways range to the top, providing a useful level to build trades around depending on whether the perpetual cycle between de-escalation and re-escalation headlines involving the Gulf has finally come to an end. This market has shown itself to be interested only in geopolitics and technicals lately, meaning domestic factors matter little when gauging directional risks. If this really is the end to the war and we see an extension of the bullish move, longs could be initiated on a break above 8900 with a tight stop beneath, targeting 9063 initially with 9120 and the record high at 9226.4 other potential upside levels after that. But if this is just another headline-driven pump with no real resolution that meaningfully reduces risks around Hormuz, the option is there to initiate shorts beneath 8900 with a tight stop above for protection, targeting the cluster of key moving averages found from 8800. If the price were to slip beneath the 50-day moving average at 8766, forming the bottom of that cluster, the next logical downside target would be where the contract found itself earlier this week at 8600. I’m not putting a lot of emphasis on the signal given the headline-driven environment, but the oscillators hint bulls may be starting to gain the ascendency when it comes to momentum, with RSI (14) pushing above 50 while MACD looks set to cross above the signal line imminently. Good luck! DS